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An aging population that values its free time set the stage for economic
stagnation. Then came Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Europeans are facing
a new economic reality, one they haven’t experienced in decades. They are
becoming poorer. Life on a continent long envied by outsiders for its art de
vivre is rapidly losing its shine as Europeans see their purchasing power melt
away. The French are eating less foie gras and drinking less red wine. Spaniards
are stinting on olive oil. Finns are being urged to use saunas on windy days
when energy is less expensive. Across Germany, meat and milk consumption has
fallen to the lowest level in three decades and the once-booming market for
organic food has tanked. Italy’s economic development minister, Adolfo Urso,
convened a crisis meeting in May over prices for pasta, the country’s favorite
staple, after they jumped by more than double the national inflation rate. With
consumption spending in free fall, Europe tipped into recession at the start of
the year, reinforcing a sense of relative economic, political and military
decline that kicked in at the start of the century Europe’s current predicament
has been long in the making. An aging population with a preference for free time
and job security over earnings ushered in years of lackluster economic and
productivity growth. Then came the one-two punch of the Covid-19 pandemic and
Russia’s protracted war in Ukraine. By upending global supply chains and sending
the prices of energy and food rocketing, the crises aggravated ailments that had
been festering for decades. Governments’ responses only compounded the problem.
To preserve jobs, they steered their subsidies primarily to employers, leaving
consumers without a cash cushion when the price shock came. Americans, by
contrast, benefited from inexpensive energy and government aid directed
primarily at citizens to keep them spending. In the past, the continent’s
formidable export industry might have come to the rescue. But a sluggish
recovery in China, a critical market for Europe, is undermining that growth
pillar. High energy costs and rampant inflation at a level not seen since the
1970s are dulling manufacturers’ price advantage in international markets and
smashing the continent’s once-harmonious labor relations. As global trade cools,
Europe’s heavy reliance on exports—which account for about 50% of eurozone GDP
versus 10% for the U.S.—is becoming a weakness. Private consumption has declined
by about 1% in the 20-nation eurozone since the end of 2019 after adjusting for
inflation, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, a Paris-based club of mainly wealthy countries. In the U.S., where
households enjoy a strong labor market and rising incomes, it has increased by
nearly 9%. The European Union now accounts for about 18% of all global
consumption spending, compared with 28% for America. Fifteen years ago, the EU
and the U.S. each represented about a quarter of that total. Adjusted for
inflation and purchasing power, wages have declined by about 3% since 2019 in
Germany, by 3.5% in Italy and Spain and by 6% in Greece. Real wages in the U.S.
have increased by about 6% over the same period, according to OECD data. The
pain reaches far into the middle classes. In Brussels, one of Europe’s richest
cities, teachers and nurses stood in line on a recent evening to collect
half-price groceries from the back of a truck. The vendor, Happy Hours Market,
collects food close to its expiration date from supermarkets and advertises it
through an app. Customers can order in the early afternoon and collect their
cut-price groceries in the evening. “Some customers tell me, because of you I
can eat meat two or three times per week,” said Pierre van Hede, who was handing
out crates of groceries. Karim Bouazza, a 33-year-old nurse who was stocking up
on half-price meat and fish for his wife and two children, complained that
inflation means “you almost need to work a second job to pay for everything.”
Similar services have sprung up across the region, marketing themselves as a way
to reduce food waste as well as save money. TooGoodToGo, a company founded in
Denmark in 2015 that sells leftover food from retailers and restaurants, has 76
million registered users across Europe, roughly three times the number at the
end of 2020. In Germany, Sirplus, a startup created in 2017, offers “rescued”
food, including products past their sell-by date, on its online store. So does
Motatos, created in Sweden in 2014 and now present in Finland, Germany, Denmark
and the U.K. Spending on high-end groceries has collapsed. Germans consumed 52
kilograms of meat per person in 2022, about 8% less than the previous year and
the lowest level since calculations began in 1989. While some of that reflects
societal concerns about healthy eating and animal welfare, experts say the trend
has been accelerated by meat prices which increased by up to 30% in recent
months. Germans are also swapping meats such as beef and veal for less-expensive
ones such as poultry, according to the Federal Information Center for
Agriculture. Thomas Wolff, an organic-food supplier near Frankfurt, said his
sales fell by up to 30% last year as inflation surged. Wolff said he had hired
33 people earlier in the pandemic to handle strong demand for pricey ecological
foodstuffs, but he has since let them all go. Ronja Ebeling, a 26-year-old
consultant and author based in Hamburg, said she saves about one-quarter of her
income, partly because she worries about having enough money for retirement. She
spends little on clothes or makeup and shares a car with her partner’s father.
The eurozone economy grew about 6% over the past 15 years, measured in dollars,
compared with 82% for the U.S., according to International Monetary Fund data.
That has left the average EU country poorer per head than every U.S. state
except Idaho and Mississippi, according to a report this month by the European
Centre for International Political Economy, a Brussels-based independent think
tank. If the current trend continues, by 2035 the gap between economic output
per capita in the U.S. and EU will be as large as that between Japan and Ecuador
today, the report said. On the Mediterranean island of Mallorca, businesses are
lobbying for more flights to the U.S. to increase the number of free-spending
American tourists, said Maria Frontera, president of the Mallorca Chamber of
Commerce’s tourism commission. Americans spend about €260 ($292) per day on
average on hotels compared with less than €180 ($202) for Europeans. “This year
we have seen a big change in the behavior of Europeans because of the economic
situation we are dealing with,” said Frontera, who recently traveled to Miami to
learn how to better cater to American customers. Weak growth and rising interest
rates are straining Europe’s generous welfare states, which provide popular
healthcare services and pensions. European governments find the old recipes for
fixing the problem are either becoming unaffordable or have stopped working.
Three-quarters of a trillion euros in subsidies, tax breaks and other forms of
relief have gone to consumers and businesses to offset higher energy
costs—something economists say is now itself fueling inflation, defeating the
subsidies’ purpose. Public-spending cuts after the global financial crisis
starved Europe’s state-funded healthcare systems, especially the U.K.’s National
Health Service. Vivek Trivedi, a 31-year-old anesthesiologist living in
Manchester, England, earns about £51,000 ($67,000) per year for a 48-hour
workweek. Inflation, which has been about 10% or higher in the U.K. for nearly a
year, is devouring his monthly budget, he says. Trivedi said he shops for
groceries in discount retailers and spends less on meals out. Some colleagues
turned off their heating entirely over recent months, worried they wouldn’t be
able to afford sharply higher costs, he said. Noa Cohen, a 28-year old
public-affairs specialist in London, says she could quadruple her salary in the
same job by leveraging her U.S. passport to move across the Atlantic. Cohen
recently got a 10% pay raise after switching jobs, but the increase was
completely swallowed by inflation. She says friends are freezing their eggs
because they can’t afford children anytime soon, in the hope that they have
enough money in future. “It feels like a perma-freeze in living standards,” she
said. Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s chief economist, warned U.K. citizens in
April that they need to accept that they are poorer and stop pushing for higher
wages. “Yes, we’re all worse off,” he said, saying that seeking to offset rising
prices with higher wages would only fuel more inflation. With European
governments needing to increase defense spending and given rising borrowing
costs, economists expect taxes to increase, adding pressure on consumers. Taxes
in Europe are already high relative to those in other wealthy countries,
equivalent to around 40-45% of GDP compared with 27% in the U.S. American
workers take home almost three-quarters of their paychecks, including income
taxes and Social Security taxes, while French and German workers keep just half.
The pauperization of Europe has bolstered the ranks of labor unions, which are
picking up tens of thousands of members across the continent, reversing a
decadeslong decline. Higher unionization may not translate into fuller pockets
for members. That’s because many are pushing workers’ preference for more free
time over higher pay, even in a world of spiraling skills shortages. IG Metall,
Germany’s biggest trade union, is calling for a four-day work week at current
salary levels rather than a pay raise for the country’s metalworkers ahead of
collective bargaining negotiations this November. Officials say the shorter week
would improve workers’ health and quality of life while at the same time making
the industry more attractive to younger workers. Almost half of employees in
Germany’s health industry choose to work around 30 hours per week rather than
full time, reflecting tough working conditions, said Frank Werneke, chairman of
the country’s United Services Trade Union, which has added about 110,000 new
members in recent months, the biggest increase in 22 years. Kristian Kallio, a
games developer in northern Finland, recently decided to reduce his working week
by one-fifth to 30 hours in exchange for a 10% pay cut. He now makes about
€2,500 per month. “Who wouldn’t want to work shorter hours?” Kallio said. About
one-third of his colleagues took the same deal, although leaders work full-time,
said Kallio’s boss, Jaakko Kylmäoja. Kallio now works from 10 a.m. to 4.30 p.m.
He uses his extra free time for hobbies, to make good food and take long bike
rides. “I don’t see a reality where I would go back to normal working hours,” he
said. Igor Chaykovskiy, a 34-year-old IT worker in Paris, joined a trade union
earlier this year to press for better pay and conditions. He recently received a
3.5% pay increase, about half the level of inflation. He thinks the union will
give workers greater leverage to press managers. Still, it isn’t just about pay.
“Maybe they say you don’t have an increase in salary, you have free sports
lessons or music lessons,” he said. At the Stellantis auto factory in Melfi,
southern Italy, employees have worked shorter hours for years recently due to
the difficulty of procuring raw materials and high energy costs, said Marco
Lomio, a trade unionist with the Italian Union of Metalworkers. Hours worked
have recently been reduced by around 30% and wages decreased proportionally.
“Between high inflation and rising energy costs for workers,” said Lomio, “it is
difficult to bear all family expenses.”
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