On Sunday, September 8, polling expert and FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver updated his presidential election forecast and gave GOP nominee Donald Trump a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in November and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris only a 36 percent chance. But vet...
  • nifty@lemmy.world
    30·
    2 months ago

    It doesn’t matter if Thiel pays him, fact is that the electoral college has a real danger of being fixed for Trump IF people don’t turn out to vote

  • HelixDab2@lemm.ee
    3710·
    2 months ago

    Nate Silver is good with odds, regardless of who he works for. This whole article is a genetic fallacy; it’s saying that it’s wrong just because he’s funded by someone that supports Trump. There’s no counter-evidence, although there’s a counter-claim, that also doesn’t have strong evidence.

    As of 10 Sept., FiveThirtyEight is giving Harris a 56:44 edge over Trump. Personally, I tend to believe FiveThirtyEight a little more over all, because they’re looking at and weighting many different polls. But these odds are way too close for comfort, given that Clinton was favored to beat Trump 6-4 the day of the 2016 election.

    If you don’t want Trump to win, get out there and vote, and make sure everyone that leans Harris knows that they need to get out and vote on 5 November, and make sure your Republican friends get out there and vote on 6 November.

    • taiyang@lemmy.world
      13·
      2 months ago

      Amen. I soured on him too, but that kind of post isn’t that different from saying X is associated with Soros or Buffett, etc.

  • abff08f4813c@j4vcdedmiokf56h3ho4t62mlku.srv.usEnglish
    6·
    2 months ago

    The other takeaway I’d have from this is - if Nate Silver is correct then it’s a warning sign to Dems. There’s a need to go out to the swing states and tweak policy positions and messaging to win over voters there to get the numbers back up and get a stronger win - one strong enough to translate into a win in the EC.

  • realcaseyrollins@thelemmy.clubEnglish
    1111·
    2 months ago

    Funny how that didn’t matter until he said something positive about Trump’s chances at winning the election 😂

    • ultranaut@lemmy.world
      51·
      2 months ago

      It did to some people, I’ve been seeing shade thrown at him about the Thiel investment for awhile now. Its getting more attention recently but I don’t think its fair to characterize things the way you have.