Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
The USNS Big Horn was damaged after the ship refueled and replenished Navy vessels operating in the region, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and several guided-missile destroyers. The Navy official would not say where the incident occurred or what type of damage the replenishment oiler sustained.
lol
Rybar on today’s events on the Lebanon-Israel border, extremely pessimistic
spoiler
🇮🇱🇱🇧 Situation on the Lebanon-Israel border: IDF announces air operation in Lebanon Situation as of the end of September 24, 2024
The Israeli Air Force continues to carry out massive strikes (https://t.me/rybar/63773) on the territory of the neighboring Republic of Lebanon. Against this backdrop, the Israel Defense Forces have announced the start of Operation “Hetzei ha-Tzafon” (“Arrows of the North”).
📌 Due to the peculiarities of translation from Hebrew to English and then to Russian, as well as in attempts to catch the “wave”, some resources reported about the start of the advance of Israeli units in southern Lebanon. In reality, the actions of the Israelis are so far limited to air strikes.
▪️ Today’s hits by the Israeli Air Force affected not only the border areas of Lebanon: populated areas located more than 100 kilometers from the border with Israel, including Ain Al, were also attacked.
▪️ In addition, the Ad-Dahiya district - the stronghold of Hezbollah in Beirut - was struck again. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit stated that the commander of the missile unit of the Shiite group, Ibrahim Muhammad al-Kubaysi, was eliminated. At the same time, the Arabic-language media have not yet commented on this message.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, the victims of the IDF’s actions since yesterday have been 558 killed and 1,853 wounded. There is also a mass exodus of Lebanese from the southern part of the country: they are fleeing to the cities of Tripoli and Beirut, as well as to the territory of the Syrian Arab Republic.
▪️ Hezbollah fighters also continue to retaliate by shelling Israeli territory: more than 100 rockets were fired in the morning. Most of them were either intercepted by Israeli air defense systems or fell in open areas. Only a small number of projectiles managed to fall within the boundaries of populated areas, causing minor damage.
Based on the reported hits, the forces of the Lebanese group have also expanded the shelling zone to more than 100 kilometers. This is also confirmed by the yesterday’s impacts of the rockets launched by Hezbollah on the territory of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
🔻 Despite the rather tense situation, the parties are so far limited to massive strikes on each other’s positions. At the same time, the current ultra-Orthodox authorities of Israel do not stop their attempts to provoke the Lebanese into a more serious response.
Until then, Hezbollah is trying not to give the ultra-right government of Benjamin Netanyahu a reason to unleash a full-fledged Third Lebanese War. Despite the accusations of Israeli propaganda, it is by no means the Shiite group that will be the beneficiary of such an escalation.
wakes up
oh good only 160 new comments phew nothing too terrible must’ve happened overnight
Bolivian President Arce Calls on Evo Morales to Dialogue - Telesur English
Article
Indigenous communities demand that Morales be allowed to run as presidential candidate in the 2025 elections.
On Sunday, Bolivian President Luis Arce called former President Evo Morales (2006-2019) to a dialogue just hours before a massive Indigenous march is set to arrive in La Paz on Monday. The Indigenous communities demand that Morales be allowed to run as the candidate for the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) in the 2025 elections.
“They’ve talked about civil war and bloodshed in the streets. This goes beyond our norms of peaceful coexistence and even masks a political position of sedition that no government would tolerate. Until now, our government has responded to these provocations with a call for dialogue,” Arce stated, accompanied by Vice President David Choquehuanca.
In recent hours, the Office of the Ombudsman issued an invitation to Arce and Morales, urging both parties to sit down and talk before the march reaches La Paz. Arce said he is willing to engage in discussions, while Morales has yet to respond.
On Sunday afternoon, the march, led by the former Bolivian president, arrived in the community of Achica Arriba, 35 kilometers from La Paz, with the intention of entering the government headquarters on Monday. Simultaneously, tensions arose in the city of El Alto between Morales supporters and those backing Arce, who were holding a meeting to stop the former president’s march.
“The persistence of your positions and your refusal to dialogue make us see that you are driven only by a political obsession for electoral power and a personal ambition for power, disguised as a nonexistent concern for the people’s problems,” Arce said, addressing Morales.
The Indigenous organizations’ march began on Tuesday in the town of Caracollo, in the Andean region of Oruro, demanding Morales’ eligibility as a candidate for the 2025 elections. Moreales’ supporters argue that the march is meant to “save the country” from issues like the shortage of dollars and fuel, as well as the rising prices of basic goods.
They also demand that the resolutions from a MAS congress held last year—unrecognized by the Electoral Tribunal—be respected, including the decision to nominate Morales as the candidate for next year.
Arce believes that the march is aimed at getting the Senate president Andronico Rodriguez, who is close to the MAS leader, to assume the presidency of the country so that he can enable Morales’ candidacy.
Morales and Arce have been estranged since the end of 2021 due to differences in state administration, which deepened with the need to renew MAS’s national leadership, still under the former president’s control. Factions loyal to both leaders have been unable to reach an agreement on this issue.
Pezeshkian just did an interview with CNN and said: Hezbullah can’t stand against Israel on its own.
It even became headline in Iranian media let alone Zionist, see it for yourself. The problem is the message that it sends to poor Lebanese. 😑
From the Al-Jazeera live feed:
Biden says ‘time to finalise’ Gaza deal and ‘end this war’
US President Joe Biden has urged Israel and Hamas to finalise a months-old ceasefire proposal, telling the United Nations he was committed to ending the war on Gaza.
“Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms,” he said of the deal brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt.
The deal will “bring the hostages home and secure security for Israel and Gaza free from Hamas’s grip, ease the suffering in Gaza and end this war,” Biden told the UN General Assembly.
I don’t recall Biden ever being more clear that what he wants isn’t a cease fire, it’s for Hamas to surrender. When he says “Gaza free from Hamas’ grip”, he’s saying he wants a Palestinian Authority situation - which is precisely what Israel wants. Literally everything he said there is just what Israel wants: return the hostages, keep Israel “secure”, and for Hamas to self-immolate and hand over Gaza to either to Zionist lapdogs or an international coalition of American lapdogs. The idea that this man is putting any pressure on Netanyahu is obviously ridiculous.
Chud’s are gonna go on about this for a while, searches in conjunction with the assassination attempt by that nafo dude led to cops finding his son had hundreds of child porn images.
Anyone know what to expect with the possible International Longshoremen’s Association strike?
Some articles:
Reuters: US Labor department reaches out to employer group amid possible port strike
NYT: A Looming East Coast Port Strike Could Shake the Economy
In a rerun of their fearmongering over the railroad strike two years ago, the NYT is emphasizing that this could ruin Christmas:
Chris Butler, the chief executive of the National Tree Company, which sells artificial Christmas trees and other decorations, said his company had brought in goods early and made greater use of West Coast ports. But he estimated that 15 percent of his goods would still be stranded by a port strike.
Part one effortpost here, I chose number two. Sorry for any grammatical fuckups in advance, it was too long to proof read.
The Rise of the Collective Shia Identity: Part One
The year is 1978. Ayatollah Khomeini, the main voice of Shia Islamism has just been expelled from Najaf by Saddam Hussein. Najaf, the capital of Shia Islam and where the biggest Hawzas (Shia Islamic schools) are located, is a hotspot of political repression, executions, and arrests. The main Marja (basically Shia pope), Sayyid Abu Al Qasim Al Khoei is reduced to a strictly religious role, giving rulings about useless things like marriages and inheritance. His predecessor, Sayyid Muhsin Al Hakim, pushed the political buttons too hard with a ruling that deemed communists and Baathists as disbelievers, which made the Iraqi state go crazy and start a huge campaign of repression of anything political from the Shia elite. Khomeini’s development of the concept of Wilayat Al Faqih was very worrying for Baathist Iraq, so he was expelled from Najaf.
Shias in Iraq never got a place post-Sykes-Picot, with the Kingdom of Iraq being dominated by the Sunni Baghdadi elite. The period between 1958-1968 after the revolution was too chaotic and disjointed to produce an elite, with daily conflicts and coup attempts by adventurers with different ideologies. The Baathist period produced a new elite strictly dominated by Sunnis from Salahaddin Province, so the Shias just never got a seat at the table. Two ideologies penetrated the Shia mind, Islamism and Communism. Islamists were concentrated in Karbala and Najaf, two holy cities for Shia Islam. Communists where concentrated in Nasiriyah, Amarah and Basra, cities where poverty was rampant. Islamists were finally organised in the form of the Dawa Party, led by Musa Al Sadr’s cousin Muhammed Baqir Al Sadr. Musa Al Sadr would later rise as the spiritual leader of the Lebanese Shia community. Muhammed Baqir Al Sadr’s works and political activities really annoyed the Iraqi state, so he and his sister were executed by the state in 1980. Most of their followers were executed or exiled. Many of the influential families in Najaf and Karbala had some Persian ancestry, nearly all those families suffered from mass deportations as Saddam’s anti-Persian paranoia grew. The communists suffered from the same fate, with most communists either executed or exiled by the state due to their political activities.
Now we’re done with Iraq, let’s go to Iran. Shia Islamism is dead here too, the Shah’s security services arrests anyone with any political activity. Khomeini was successfully chased out 20 years ago, and there’s no organised political force that can even talk loudly without getting executed. The Shah is at least Shia Muslim on paper, he prays in public once every 10 years, visits the shrines in Qom and Mashhad occasionally, but to everyone with a functioning brain, this man is a disbeliever. There’s something brewing, but let’s wait with that story.
Let’s go to Lebanon. Shias in Lebanon are around half of the Muslim population. It’s hard to get exact numbers, but Shias are around 25% of the total population of the country. The Shia community here also never got a real seat at the table. The president holds most of the power and is always a Maronite. The prime minister gets fired every few weeks, but he’s always a Sunni and does nothing while the Maronite elite is pretending to be French and robbing the country. The speaker of the parliament is Shia, but toilet paper is more useful than that position. Feudalism didn’t really end in the Shia parts of Lebanon, most Shias were farmers who were getting fucked so hard on a daily basis that they didn’t have time to even think about politics. Remember we’re in 1978, where are the Shias in the middle of civil war? The answer is nowhere. The main sides are Maronites vs Sunni Muslims, communists and Palestinians. Shias were not a major factor here. The only notable Shia organization is the Amal Movement, led by Musa Al Sadr. Musa was a charismatic leader who would set the foundations of the modern Shia Lebanese identity, he was respected by all sectors of the cursed Lebanese society and his connections to Iran and Iraq were slowly starting to be important in a regional context. But nothing good lasts, as he was inexplicably disappeared and presumably killed by Gaddafi during a routine visit to Libya in August 1978.
Let’s go to Yemen and the Gulf. In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, Shias were an afterthought, they are 0% of the ruling families and have zero political representation. They’re allowed to do some rituals at home when no one sees, but if you open your mouth in public and say anything Shia Islamist, you’re getting disappeared and your whole family will probably be deported to Iran or something. Shias in Bahrain are the absolute majority and they’re significant minorities in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In Yemen, the Shias are not the same kind of Shia as in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. The main group of Shia Muslims are either called Jaafari after the theological works of the sixth Shia Imam Jaafar Al Sadiq, or Ithna Ashari (Twelvers) due to their belief in twelve Imams after the Prophet Muhammed, starting with Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib and ending with Imam Muhammed Al Mahdi, also known as the Hidden Imam who according to Shia beliefs will reappear one day and basically set in motion the end of the physical world. The Shia of Yemen are known as Zaydis, after Zayd ibn Jaafar Al Sadiq, who the Zaidis recognized as 7th Imam, while the Twelvers recognized Musa ibn Jaafar Al Sadiq. The Zaidi Imamate in Northern Yemen continued for nearly a thousand years, but it could not withstand the post-WW2 chaos in the region and ended in nearly comic fashion after a coup led by local rivals and involvement from an exiled Iraqi officer. The Zaydi community here in 1978 is in disarray, with many converting to Sunni Islam out of convenience in a new world. There’s no organized Zaydi force or political party, they just farm in the highlands of Northern Yemen and chill out there. It is a fading group, but wait, something just happened in Yemen. Ali Abdullah Saleh, a Zaydi military officer from Sanaa, and one of the great adventurers of the 1900s in the Middle East, just did a military coup and took power in the failing state of North Yemen in July 1978.
How did this defeated religious group go from edges of the region to the dominant group in five countries and a political force that annoys America and Israel? We’ll find out in the next episode as we cover the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the formative value of the Iraq-Iran War, the failed Shaaban Revolution in Iraq, the rise of Hezbollah in the south of Lebanon, and the rise of the Houthi (Ansarallah) movement in Yemen.
Thank fucking god that Syria isn’t a nation led by a comprador shithead and is allowing Lebanese refugees in via border crossings. Incredibly difficult situation for Assad given the state that Syria was already in, massive respect for not hesitating. Hoping that Iran and friends can get enough food in to the refugees to prevent the famine we’re seeing in Gaza, as the numbers of displaced might reach the hundreds of thousands by the end of this war. Now would be a good time for Russia to help things out with its big agricultural sector, for example.
A discussion of what seem to be Zelensky’s future diplomatic plans. The author, Mr. Bhadrakumar, is a professional diplomat who writes about foreign affairs, but he is not a Marxist. He talks about Zelensky’s continued purge and the three point plan he intends to present to Biden. To the second half of the article, some milbloggers think Zelensky’s plan is an intentional over-ask. Zelensky will get his ‘betarayal’ from the West, and pivot to negotiations and conceding the status quo, at least. With that possibility in mind, the first part of the article suggests that perhaps Zelensky is legitimately trying to break with the CIA. They’re certainly not the only people in Ukraine credibly threatening Zelensky’s life. https://www.indianpunchline.com/zelenskys-victory-plan-is-his-survival-kit/
An exclusive report on electronic warfare measures affecting commercial flights. GPS spoofing is affecting airlines around the world (but only people in the West could be reached for comment). Companies, regulators, and pilots are split on what to do. It’s worth noting that as flying gets more stressful or dangerous, there are already major pilot shortages in USamerica from Covid, expensive training, and mandatory retirement at 65. The Wall Street Journal does produce original journalism. Their ideology is known. Functional air travel is in the interests of everyone, especially journalists. i did not read the comments and i don’t think people should. https://archive.md/RztnK
A very good analysis of Mexico-USA-China relations. It is quite long. It goes over AMLO’s judicial reform and the USA attempts to stifle it. The DEA are doing what, in another country, one might call “election interference”. In response, AMLO has been talking more with China. On the liberal/ diplomatic side of things, there are a lot of statements from diplomats, which are nice to read because sometimes i forget what real diplomacy sounds like. On the material side of things, it’s worth noting most Mexican imports from China are to be either assembled and then shipped to the USA or to be shipped to the USA to dodge tariffs. Mexico and China are the two largest exporters to the USA, and are competing to sell products. On the other hand, the USA has no answer or equivalent to the Belt and Road Initiative. A transoceanic railway link from the Gulf to the Pacific could compete with the Panama Canal, and all of the investment in it is Chinese. Chinese cars and electronics are gaining market share, and BYD is promising a dealership in every state and one factory, somewhere. The article concludes with a quote from Forbes Mexico, which really shows how outrageous recent USamerican actions have been. It is a further example of USamerican arrogance in the face of a changing world. When confronted with things not going as they plan or desire, they can never adjust the plan or cooperate. The ruling class of these times can only reach to violence, tariffs, and threats. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/09/beijing-and-mexico-focus-on-deepening-cooperation-as-bilateral-trade-surges-to-record-levels.html
Iran Observer: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to speak live on television tomorrow at 10.15 Tehran time
Keir Starmer demands the return of the sausages from Gaza
Feels so good iOS has RCS now.
No tinge of anxiety when I’m sending a text to an Android user and not seeing a ‘delivered’ notification, assured that my messages are not going into the void
Edit: and btw the read receipt is auto on for you mfs bwahahahahah i can see when you’re ignoring me
