Image is of Assad and his family.
After less than two weeks of retreating with few shots fired and little resistance, the SAA has retreated into, well, a state of non-existence. This thereby ends a conflict that has been simmering for over a decade. With the end of this conflict, another begins: the carving up of what used to be Syria between Israel and Turkey, with perhaps the odd Syrian faction getting a rump state here and there. Both Israel and Turkey have begun military operations, with Israel working on expanding their territory in Syria and bombing military bases to ensure as little resistance as possible.
Israeli success in Syria is interesting to contrast against their failures in Gaza and Lebanon. A short time ago, Israel failed to make significant territorial progress in Lebanon due to Hezbollah’s resistance despite the heavy hits they had recently taken, and was forced into a ceasefire with little to show for the manpower and equipment lost and the settlers displaced. The war with Lebanon was fast, but still slow enough to allow a degree of analysis and prediction. In contrast, the sheer speed of Syria’s collapse has made analysis near-impossible beyond obvious statements like “this is bad” and “Assad is fucking up”; by the time a major Syrian city had fallen, you barely had time to digest the implications before the next one was under threat.
There is still too much that we don’t know about the potential responses (and non-responses) of other countries in the region - Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, and Russia, for example. I think that this week and the next will see a lot of statements made by various parties and an elucidation of how the conflict will progress. The only thing that seems clear is that we are in the next stage of the conflict, and perhaps have been, in retrospect, since Nasrallah’s assassination. This stage has been and will be far more chaotic as the damage to Israel compounds and they are willing to take greater and greater risks to stay in power. It will also involve Israel causing destruction all throughout the region, rather than mostly localizing it in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Successful gambles like with Syria may or may not outweigh the unsuccessful ones like with Lebanon. This is a similar road to the one apartheid South Africa took, but there are also too many differences to say if the destination will be the same.
What is certain is that Assad’s time in power can be summarized as a failure, both to be an effective leader and to create positive economic conditions. His policies were actively harmful to internal stability for no real payoff and by the end, all goodwill had been fully depleted. By the end, the SAA did not fight back; not because of some wunderwaffen on the side of HST, but because there was nothing to fight for, and internal cohesion rapidly disintegrated.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
HTS fighter gives ‘brotherly advice’, asking me to wear headscarf - BBC
spoiler
On our way to Damascus’ main Umayyad Square, I meet Abul Hammam, a Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighter, and his cousin Mohammad.
They hug each other tightly, meeting after 15 years apart.
Abul Hammam, 30, originally from Damascus, says he was fighting in Aleppo for years at the beginning of the Syrian revolution where he joined HTS. He has been in Azerbaijan for some years.
I speak to him in Azeri a little.
“Your name is Arabic but you are not Arab. Where are you from?” he asks me.
I cautiously tell him that I am originally from Iran’s West Azerbaijan.
He smiles, saying: “Many of our ancestors are from Balkan and old Soviet Union countries near Iran. I like Iranian people but not the regime. We fought with them.”
He goes on to ask me whether I am a Christian – I smile, trying to avoid talking about religion. He continues: “May I give you a brotherly nice advice? Do you have headscarf?”
I say yes I have it with me.
“I think you will be nicer if you wear it as a Muslim woman,” he says.
Out of respect and for security reasons I take my headscarf and cover a part of my hair similar to how I would wear it in Iran.
“If you bring it further and cover all, it will [be] much better,” Hammam adds.
A little news and combat footage from the Donbass and Kursk oblast.
This news article discusses Russian forces’ recent advances and includes a big collection of combat footage videos (some are 18+): https://southfront.press/ukraine-faces-the-loss-of-five-cities-russias-offensive-gains-momentum/
Racist, British imperialist disinformation about “North Korean soldiers in Kursk” was exposed as laughable fake news: https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/DMNK:3
Some Syria news for today.
The big news of the day is that former officers and soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army’s 25th Special Mission Forces Division (Tiger Forces) are organizing in the coastal, mountainous areas near Lebanon and have vowed to continue fighting against the Western-backed terrorists. The announcement is very reminiscent of how Green resistance forces continued fighting against Western-backed terrorists in Libya for many years after NATO destroyed the Jamahiriya: https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/1866927900886467014
Iranian Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei stated, “The more they fight the resistance, the wider its front will be, and it will be stronger and include the entire region … America is trying to establish a foothold in the region, but it will not achieve its goals, and the resistance front will expel the Americans from the region”: https://thecradle.co/articles/fall-of-syria-planned-in-us-israeli-war-rooms-khamenei
Turkish-backed “SNA” and al-Queda “HTS” forces captured the eastern Syrian city of Deir ez-Zor from Washington’s “SDF” proxies: https://sputnikglobe.com/20241211/what-is-the-strategic-importance-of-deir-ez-zor-and-could-it-cause-new-kurdish-syrian-conflict-1121150295.html
Traitorous elements controlling Syria’s Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party announced the suspension of the party’s activities: https://tass.com/world/1886169
The Western-backed terrorist onslaught has now displaced over one million Syrians: https://tass.com/world/1886137
Does the apartheid regime just get their buffer zones on Google maps now?
For the last few years, the GOP has coalesced around an idea that would short-circuit essentially all trans health care in America: banning federal funds from going to businesses that provide health care specific to changing one’s sex or gender identity, including hormones and surgeries. It would essentially signal to the private sector that if it wants federal dollars, it needs to stay away from sex- or gender-affirming care, and bow down to right-wing pundits who aim to, in their own words, “eradicate” and “erase” this form of health care.
Language in House Republicans’ most recent funding bill for the Health and Human Services Department would do just that — ban money from any federal program to entities that do “social transitioning” or drugs and surgery for “gender dysphoria.” Gender dysphoria is the specific diagnosis doctors use to justify those medical interventions. This legislation has not gotten a vote yet and would need to be reintroduced next Congress to be considered. But it has been a top priority for Republican lawmakers in the House, and Trump himself has promised he’d ask Congress “to permanently stop federal taxpayer dollars from being used to promote or pay for these [trans] procedures.” (You can hear all his promises on trans health care in this short campaign video.)
Bans like these can lead to the private sector discontinuing behaviors altogether — and once they are in place, they are hard to get rid of: The Hyde Amendment, enacted in the 1970s, led to most abortions no longer being performed in hospitals, and is continually renewed each year.
Medical groups and civil rights advocates in D.C. tell Rolling Stone they believe that if a Hyde-level ban on federal funding were enacted, many hospitals will simply prioritize federal dollars over continuing this highly specialized form of medical care. So much medicine is performed through hospital systems and universities that this could mean ending access for many.
Given the Democratic Party leapt at the chance to scapegoat transgender people for all their own failures in the election, I think it would take a miracle to prevent this from going into law. It will immediately put large health institutions in certain states between a rock and hard place, as local legislation requires them to offer these services, which will likely lead to appeals, but as it stands I doubt they will make even a token effort to get this language out of the bill, and it will make HRT completely legally inaccessible for anyone who can’t afford private practice virtually overnight. This article’s author, Jael Holzman, is the guest on this week’s Chapo, you can hear the story in her own words there.
With regards to the Russian Oreshnik IRBM (and conventional prompt strike weapons in general), and Putin’s statements over the past few days and weeks about how these conventional weapons can do similar amount of damage as tactical nuclear weapons, the user @[email protected] asked a really good question: what kind of facilities would take a similar amount of damage from an Oreshnik strike as a tactical nuclear weapon?
My attempt to answer that question, with some analysis and satellite imagery. Click here to expand the spoiler tag.
My answer was an airbase, for the following reasons: Airbases are quite spread out hardened targets, with everything you want to strike spread out over kilometres, and usually protected by hardened shelters, in the case of forward airbases that are likely to be hit first. You can either do this with a lot of high precision weapons, or with a wide area of effect weapons, such as using cluster warheads/submunitions, or even a tactical nuclear weapon in a total war scenario.
The problem with a lot of submunition or cluster munition based weapons, is that the smaller conventional explosive munitions lack the power to seriously damage any hardened shelters, for aircraft, resources or personnel. That’s fine if the airbase is relatively unprotected, but if it’s full of hardened shelters, it poses a serious issue. But Oreshnik is unique in this regard: it is suspected to use kinetic submunitions that travel fast enough and with enough energy to penetrate these hardened shelters and cause damage to them. That’s why I thought Oreshnik would be an ideal weapon to seriously damage forward airbases. It’s a submunition weapon, without the drawbacks of typical submunition weapons.
To support my argument, we’ll be using imagery and data from Iran’s retaliatory strike on Nevatim Airbase during Operation True Promise II. We know that there were 33 observed impacts on the base. So what if, instead of each impact being from a single warhead, it was from a grouping of submunitions with a 175m radius for the grouping. 175m is the estimated damage radius of a Chinese DF-15 SRBM with a submunition warhead, so it’s why I’m using that figure (also I’m lazy and some OSINT guy on twitter already did the math and imagery with that radius). 33 groupings would be the approximately the equivalent of six Oreshnik IRBMs, as each Oreshnik is estimated to carry 6 MIRVs, with six submunitions each. Six Oreshniks would give you 36 groupings, so three more than the Iranian strike. But close enough for this comparison. Now Iran did not use submunitions for the reason I described in the previous paragraph, but we know that reasoning does not apply to Oreshnik, so here we go:
As you can see, we go from singular impacts mostly missing key targets, to getting good coverage over key buildings on the base as a whole. Let’s look at the potential hits in detail:
As for the aircraft shelters in the north west of the base, the strike has gone from hitting none of them, to hitting 9 aircraft shelters within the radius of the cluster strike. And those 9 shelters only required two groupings to take out. Now let’s move on to the F-35 hardened shelters at the heart of the base:
Iran achieved one direct hit here with a couple of near misses. But now with a potential cluster munition strike, 19 of these hardened shelters are hit, along with a couple of other buildings. A huge difference. Now moving on to the aircraft hangars to the east:
Here Iran did manage a some good hits on these hangars, so the difference is not large. But there is full coverage over the hangars, and six large aircraft could have been destroyed if they were unable to get in the air before the strike.
So in conclusion, from the Iranian strike, to a potential Oreshnik strike with six Oreshniks on the same target, we’ve gone from a direct hit on 1 F-35 hardened aircraft shelter and a couple of hits on unprotected hangars to the east, to hitting 19 F-35 shelters, 9 other fighter jet shelters, 5 unprotected hangars (for 33 hangars/shelters total), and 6 large parked aircraft. And that’s if Oreshnik has the same accuracy as Iranian MRBMs. If it has greater accuracy, the same damage could be done with less Oreshniks, or more damage with the same amount. If the Oreshnik was incredibly accurate and always hit it’s mark (very unrealistic, but just for the sake of argument), only one Oreshnik would have been needed to take out those 33 hangars/hardened shelters, as only six groupings were required here. That’s an incredible amount of damage from one conventional missile, to be able to take out 30+ fighter aircraft with one missile, while they are still on the ground. Even if multiple Oreshniks are required for such a strike (which is likely), it’s still a massive amount of damage. This is what Putin means when he says it’s equivalent to a tactical nuclear weapon. Taking out an entire airbase with half a dozen missiles, or even less if they are highly accurate.
Unidentified Iranian drones, reportedly the size of small cars, have been flying over American airspace to monitor U.S. military installations and critical infrastructure, including ‘Picatinny Arsenal’, an army base which houses the Headquarters of the U.S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command Armaments Center (CCDCAC) – the drones are said to be ‘technology that the U.S. does not possess’ – Newsweek
‘The drones are not Iranian, but they are also not part of the U.S. military or any foreign government’
‘The drones seem to have some sort of advanced stealth capability’ – Congressman Van Drew (R-NJ2)
‘One month ago, Iran launched a mothership near the U.S. East Coast, from where Iranian military drones have been entering U.S. airspace, including New Jersey, to monitor residences of the President & American military movements. These drones should be SHOT DOWN. The U.S. military is on full alert regarding this.’ – Congressman Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ-2), citing high-ranking intelligence sources
The Pentagon has denied that Iranian drones are operating in U.S. airspace, and states there is ‘no official explanation’ for the unidentified drones. However, Congressman Van Drew & other high-ranking government officials within the sub-commitee of Aviation of the U.S. House of Representatives insist that their information is truthful.
They say the Pentagon is denying the news in order to prevent mass panic among the U.S. population. ‘These are not American drones, we don’t even have anything like this. I have it from extremely reliable sources that these are Iranian drones, launched from a mothership near the East Coast’, Van Drew said.
In core news:
apparently
lady returned from vacations for thisMexican President Sheinbaum Grants Legal Status to 68 Indigenous Peoples - Telesur English
Article
This Latin American country is home to approximately 23 million people who identify themselves as Indigenous. On Tuesday, President Claudia Sheinbaum signed a decree recognizing the rights of Mexico’s Indigenous peoples and establishing the Presidential Commission for Justice Plans for Indigenous and Afro-Mexican Peoples.
During the morning press conference at the National Palace, Sheinbaum emphasized the significance of the reform to Article 2 of the Constitution, which was approved in September under the presidency of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and declares Mexico a “multiethnic nation.”
“Today, we will publish the reform in multiple languages, celebrating this International Human Rights Day,” she stated, referencing a law that recognizes 68 Indigenous groups as subjects of public law, granting them legal personality and their own patrimony. Additionally, the reform to Article 2 mandates consultations on projects that may impact the communities of the Indigenous peoples.
The constitutional reform was translated into over 50 indigenous languages thanks to the joint work of the National Institute of Indigenous Peoples (INPI), the University of Indigenous Languages of Mexico (ULIM) and the National Institute of Indigenous Languages (INALI), the outlet Quadratin reported.
Currently, Mexico is home to approximately 23 million people who identify themselves as Indigenous. Around 7.4 million of them speak a native language, with Nahuatl, Maya, Tzeltal, and Zapotec being the most common. The creation of the Presidential Commission aims to oversee justice plans for Indigenous peoples initiated during AMLO’s administration. To date, Mexico has implemented 17 justice plans benefiting 26 Indigenous peoples across 12 states, reaching approximately 420,000 people with a total investment of US$1.4 billion.
Sudan: Brutal Assault in Omdurman Left at Least 60 Deads - Telesur English
Article
The Government of Sudan reported on Tuesday that more than 60 people were killed by the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (FAR) in Omdurman, a town located in the northern area of metropolitan Khartoum (capital).
According to a statement by the Sudanese Ministry of Health, “the terrorist militia committed the largest human massacre by shelling against citizens in the town of Karari, north of Omdurman”. The entity also stated that hundreds of wounded are counted, and that hospitals near the town are full.
A bus carrying 22 people was also targeted as it moved through a busy market in the Karari area, recently recovered by the Sudanese army, and all those inside were killed.
The health authority of the African country detailed that «the 22 people who were inside were torn apart». The FAR paramilitary group frequently attacks the area of Omdurman, controlled for the most part by the Sudanese army.
The conflict in Sudan started three and a half years ago, causing thousands of deaths and more than eleven million displaced people, making that African country the scene of the biggest displacement crisis on earth, according to the United Nations International Organization for Migration.
In this regard, the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the prolongation of the conflict could lead to outbreaks of disease and the collapse of the health system.
Brazilian Conservative Right Presidential candidate loses ally and political rights due to Bolsonaro.
Governor Ronaldo Caiado (União), Sandro Mabel (União) and Cláudia Lira (Avante), mayor-elect of Goiânia, were convicted by the Electoral Court of Goiás for abuse of political power. Their candidacy records were revoked and they were declared ineligible for 8 years.
The three were indicted for holding events at the Esmeraldas Palace (Goiás Governor Palace) with an electoral political character after the first round of the elections. The complaint was filed by the Electoral Prosecutor’s Office and pointed to abuse of political power, which motivated the court’s decision.
For now, the decision is provisional and does not prevent Mabel and his deputy from taking office, which is scheduled for January 2025. Mabel’s defense said he was surprised by the conviction and denies any irregularities. Fines of up to R$60,000 were imposed.
The Liberal Party, Jair Bolsonaro’s party, filed the lawsuit after its candidate was defeated in this year’s municipal elections. And perhaps to remove a possible right-wing rival from the next elections.
More people are indicted for attempting a coup d’état in Brazil.
The PF (Brazil’s FBI) has indicted three more military personnel for attempting a coup: Aparecido Andrade Portela (reserve), Reginaldo Vieira de Abreu (colonel) and Rodrigo Bezerra de Azevedo (major). The total number of people indicted has now risen to 40. The charges include coup d’état and criminal organization
According to the PF, Portela brokered contacts between the Bolsonaro government and funders of actions in Mato Grosso do Sul. Abreu spread fake news about ballot boxes and tried to influence the Ministry of Defense. Bezerra took part in discussions about a plan to kidnap Minister Alexandre de Moraes.
Portela and Abreu remained silent in their testimonies, while Bezerra denied involvement. The case is moving forward in the STF (Supreme COurt) and expands the investigation into anti-democratic acts and the participation of military leaders.
Lula will undergo a new surgery this Thursday morning.
The procedure will be a complement to the previous surgery and will be an “endovascular artery embolization procedure”. The medical bulletin states that Lula is well and without complications. On Wednesday 11th, the president did physiotherapy, walked around the ICU and received family members.
According to a medical bulletin released today, he is lucid, oriented and progressing well in the post-operative period. President Lula will undergo further surgery on Thursday to block the flow of blood to his brain.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell and the stock market rose. The Congress, under the control of the far-right, voted and approved the idea of the printed ballot (used to question elections, since the vote, even if it is in an electronic ballot box, is already printed) and a law that obliges the police to remove people who enter occupied land, even without a court order. Both laws are expected to be overturned by the Supreme Court due to their unconstitutionality. It is believed that the Far-Right know it will be vetoed and will use this to claim that they are being attacked by the Supreme Court.
