forecasting

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

PostsComments

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 15 hours ago

The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’

1

7

The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 15 hours ago

1

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 day ago

5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet

news.polymarket.com

0

-3

5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet

news.polymarket.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 day ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 13 days ago

Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk

0

1

Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 13 days ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 23 days ago

Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet

tellingthefuture.substack.com

1

2

Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet

tellingthefuture.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 23 days ago

1

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

2024 Electoral Consequences

www.metaculus.com

0

0

2024 Electoral Consequences

www.metaculus.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

Mantic Monday 9/16/24

www.astralcodexten.com

0

4

Mantic Monday 9/16/24

www.astralcodexten.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 1 month ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts

comments.cftc.gov

0

1

Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts

comments.cftc.gov

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

The twists of the election in Venezuela

0

2

The twists of the election in Venezuela

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC

www.mikesblog.net

0

3

Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC

www.mikesblog.net

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 2 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news

1

7

Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

1

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise

nathanpmyoung.substack.com

0

5

Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise

nathanpmyoung.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 3 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more

riskacademy.blog

0

1

You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more

riskacademy.blog

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk

0

3

Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) arm unveils forecast contracts

0

2

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) arm unveils forecast contracts

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

Swift Centre’s UK General Election Forecasts

swiftcentre.substack.com

0

2

Swift Centre’s UK General Election Forecasts

swiftcentre.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 4 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

How the Economist's presidential prediction model works

www.economist.com

0

2

How the Economist's presidential prediction model works

www.economist.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Why the Future Belongs to Prediction Markets

www.wespeakfreely.org

0

1

Why the Future Belongs to Prediction Markets

www.wespeakfreely.org

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Open Sourcing Metaculus

www.metaculus.com

0

3

Open Sourcing Metaculus

www.metaculus.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Decoding SCOTUS: Navigating Media Bias in Supreme Court Forecasting

goodjudgment.substack.com

0

3

Decoding SCOTUS: Navigating Media Bias in Supreme Court Forecasting

goodjudgment.substack.com

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

0

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

Manifold Creator Partner Program

news.manifold.markets

1

3

Manifold Creator Partner Program

news.manifold.markets

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deMEnglish · 5 months ago

1

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

You are not logged in. However you can subscribe from another Fediverse account, for example Lemmy or Mastodon. To do this, paste the following into the search field of your instance: [email protected]

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: [email protected]

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

Visibility: Public

This community can be federated to other instances and be posted/commented in by their users.

16 users / day
20 users / week
25 users / month
87 users / 6 months
3 local subscribers
131 subscribers
182 Posts
42 Comments
Modlog

mods:
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de

tchncs

Enjoy your favorite Lemmy communities at tchncs! This instance is general purpose but it tends to attract techy people. It is hosted in Germany.

We’ve got plenty of space. Have a seat and enjoy your stay!

Rules

Be nice to each other
Do not publish advertisements
Do not publish conspiracy myths
Do not publish content illegal in Germany and/or France, such as holocaust denial or Nazi symbolism
Do not publish content promoting the ideology of National Socialism
Do not publish content that is hateful towards specific individuals or groups, or intended to cause or incite harm
For a very very detailed CoC, use the one of social.tchncs.de as reference: https://social.tchncs.de/about/more

Support

Say hi to the Lemmy community

tchncs

Explore more tchncs: tchncs.de

Funding

Just like Lemmy itself, this services survival depends on your donation. To donate to Lemmy, click the heart above. To support your cozy instance, click:
🚀 Donate to this instance