If people voted their conscience, I bet he’d have a decent chance.

He would not. I’d bet if you ask the vast majority of voters they wouldn’t even recognize his name, let alone know what his position on different topics is.

Also, you can write in anyone. Even with the issue of eligibility, it’s probably still more likely he wins, and there are multiple natural born American ones. https://www.tampabay.com/life-culture/2021/12/21/who-are-americas-real-santa-clauses/