The WSJ reports that China is on an extensive push to drive out Western tech companies from the country and replace them with domestic alternatives. China reportedly started its domestic expansion in 2022 with a highly secretive “Document 79,” an initiative focused on deleting Western tech companies from the country. Since then, China’s new plan has been in full effect — domestic alternatives have replaced most Western software providers.
When initiated two years ago, Document 79 was a super sensitive document that only high-ranking officials were purportedly shown. Security was so paramount that copies of the document were not allowed to be made. The initiative set out by Document 79 is to replace foreign software in China’s IT systems by 2027, with state-owned firms required to provide quarterly updates on their progress in replacing foreign software with domestic alternatives.
Two years later, the fruits of Document 79 are now apparent. Microsoft, HP Enterprise, and Cisco’s market share in China has fallen drastically in the past several years. In 2018, HP Enterprise had a 14.1% market share in China, but in 2023, that has fallen to just 4%. Cisco’s market share has halved in the past five years down to just 8%. Microsoft’s Chinese sales today account for just 1.5% of the company’s overall sales.
I don’t necessarily believe the United States will collapse, but we can already see that it is becoming an increasingly unreliable partner that basically flip flops on all positions depending which party is in control. They are also seemingly weary of their role as global hegemon, adapting a more isolationist and inwards oriented position.
This doesn’t mean that the u.s. will break down completely, but I could see some secessionist nonsense happening in the near future, or the looming slip into religious fascism. The country has massive internal problems that hamper its ability to maintain its role as global player, aside from their direct interests.
The thing is, American politics is inherently cyclical. Yes, it’s a rollercoaster with the parties flipping policies like burgers at a BBQ, but that’s the beauty of it. This isn’t weakness; it’s the vibrancy of democracy in action. It creates a resilience, a kind of institutional elasticity that’s unique.
Now, about the U.S. pulling back from the world stage—it’s not so much isolationism as it is recalibration. America’s geography, its energy independence—these are cards other countries can only dream of. This allows for a shift in priorities without losing global influence. The world’s changing; the U.S. is just adjusting its sails, not abandoning the ship.
Talk of secession, extremism—it’s eye-catching, sure, but let’s not get carried away. The U.S. is facing challenges, absolutely. Polarization, debates on its identity and role globally, these are serious. But remember, the U.S. has navigated through civil wars, major economic depressions, and profound social changes. It’s not just going to crumble.
In this global game, where uncertainty seems to be the only constant, the U.S. remains a key player. It’s picking its battles, sure, but when it steps onto the field, it plays to win. The essence here is not about a retreat but a strategic pivot. The world’s a complex place, and the U.S., with all its debates and divisions, is still right at the heart of it, making moves that count.
Great non-ideological analysis.