I’m a little more conservative in my expectations, at least for the time being, but i do think that the fighting capacity of the AFU has become even more degraded as a result of this battle. Every time they go through a meat grinder like this they lose a big chunk of their best soldiers and equipment which they cannot replace.
Imo more important than the loss of one fortified area is that this will have a similar effect as Bakhmut did, to weaken their capabilities overall. Now increasingly we see them struggle to defend the entire line of contact. They will pull resources from one place to defend another and inevitably the Russians will break through somewhere.
It is reasonable to expect that eventually a tipping point of collapse will be reached but it is impossible to predict when that is.
I think Russia invaded to keep Ukraine out of NATO, protect ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, and probably at least a bit because a short, victorious war is usually good for those in power.
If these were their goals, they probably want a rump Ukraine with a friendly government instead of directly ruling a bunch of hostile people in the western part of the country.
Fair enough, i also think they won’t annex entire Ukraine, but for example Kharkov and Odessa and coast up to Moldova is also full of the Russian speaking population that protested against Maidan and always voted nearly same as Donbas - and annexation of those parts would be sensible for strategic, economic and political reasons.
I’m a little more conservative in my expectations, at least for the time being, but i do think that the fighting capacity of the AFU has become even more degraded as a result of this battle. Every time they go through a meat grinder like this they lose a big chunk of their best soldiers and equipment which they cannot replace.
Imo more important than the loss of one fortified area is that this will have a similar effect as Bakhmut did, to weaken their capabilities overall. Now increasingly we see them struggle to defend the entire line of contact. They will pull resources from one place to defend another and inevitably the Russians will break through somewhere.
It is reasonable to expect that eventually a tipping point of collapse will be reached but it is impossible to predict when that is.
My question is, do Russia even want to take big advances? They never do it even when opportunity arise.
I think Russia invaded to keep Ukraine out of NATO, protect ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine, and probably at least a bit because a short, victorious war is usually good for those in power.
If these were their goals, they probably want a rump Ukraine with a friendly government instead of directly ruling a bunch of hostile people in the western part of the country.
Fair enough, i also think they won’t annex entire Ukraine, but for example Kharkov and Odessa and coast up to Moldova is also full of the Russian speaking population that protested against Maidan and always voted nearly same as Donbas - and annexation of those parts would be sensible for strategic, economic and political reasons.