The linked article hypothesizes “a rump Russia reduced to the area bounded by St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod.” Even given the country’s struggles, I have a hard time imagining large chunks of Russia breaking away. My question is whether there is evidence to believe that kind of split has become a real possibility. Neither Putin nor his successor would allow it without a serious fight given the immense value of the natural resources and sea ports Russia would lose.
Imo, anyone who’s going to try to break away from Russia, ahem Serbia, would wait until Russia’s military collapses before they make any official announcements.
But plenty of Russian allies have secretly worked against Russia itself, won’t be long before they’re all doing it as overtly as Turkey’s Erdogan.
The linked article hypothesizes “a rump Russia reduced to the area bounded by St. Petersburg, Moscow and Nizhny Novgorod.” Even given the country’s struggles, I have a hard time imagining large chunks of Russia breaking away. My question is whether there is evidence to believe that kind of split has become a real possibility. Neither Putin nor his successor would allow it without a serious fight given the immense value of the natural resources and sea ports Russia would lose.
They’re getting pushed back in Ukraine 400 km from Moscow, I think the Muscovites would have a hard time sustaining logistics 5000 km away in Siberia.
Imo, anyone who’s going to try to break away from Russia, ahem Serbia, would wait until Russia’s military collapses before they make any official announcements.
But plenty of Russian allies have secretly worked against Russia itself, won’t be long before they’re all doing it as overtly as Turkey’s Erdogan.