Younger Black voters are more disillusioned with Biden and more open to Trump and third-party alternatives, while older Black voters are far more supportive of the president.
These findings have produced understandable skepticism, fueled by red herring polls in past campaigns suggesting surprising levels of Black GOP support that failed to materialize on Election Day.
It’s important to note that in most individual polls, the sample size of Black voters is generally low, given that they typically make up just over 10 percent of the electorate.
Additionally, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll released this week (but conducted a month ago) looked exclusively at Black voters, with a pool of over 1,000 and a much smaller margin of error.
But respondents were asked to rate their likelihood of supporting each of five potential candidates: 74% said Biden, 14% Trump, 20% Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 14% Jill Stein, and 9% said Cornel West.
If Trump can actually translate this into a historically high level of Black support and deny Biden the kind of advantage Democrats have long enjoyed, it could win him the election.
And if it’s mainly the pro-Biden side of this generational divide that shows up in November, we could end up looking back at the current polling as just another red herring.
The original article contains 536 words, the summary contains 177 words. Saved 67%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!
This is the best summary I could come up with:
These findings have produced understandable skepticism, fueled by red herring polls in past campaigns suggesting surprising levels of Black GOP support that failed to materialize on Election Day.
It’s important to note that in most individual polls, the sample size of Black voters is generally low, given that they typically make up just over 10 percent of the electorate.
Additionally, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll released this week (but conducted a month ago) looked exclusively at Black voters, with a pool of over 1,000 and a much smaller margin of error.
But respondents were asked to rate their likelihood of supporting each of five potential candidates: 74% said Biden, 14% Trump, 20% Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 14% Jill Stein, and 9% said Cornel West.
If Trump can actually translate this into a historically high level of Black support and deny Biden the kind of advantage Democrats have long enjoyed, it could win him the election.
And if it’s mainly the pro-Biden side of this generational divide that shows up in November, we could end up looking back at the current polling as just another red herring.
The original article contains 536 words, the summary contains 177 words. Saved 67%. I’m a bot and I’m open source!