• On Thursday, Kamal Kharrazi, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that Iran could change its nuclear doctrine and pursue the production of nuclear weapons if the country’s existence were to be threatened. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Kharrazi is quoted as saying that if Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which it has long insisted are for peaceful purposes, the country’s “deterrence will change” and it will be left with “no choice” but to build nuclear weapons. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Israel and Iran, long-time geopolitical enemies, have engaged in a military tit-for-tat since April when Iran launched 300 drones and missiles towards Israel in response to an Israeli strike on their embassy in Damascus. english.alarabiya.net
• Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60% purity, with 90% purity needed for nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates that Iran could produce two nuclear weapons with the amount of uranium it possesses. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Khamenei had issued a fatwa, a religious ruling, against nuclear weapons in the 2000s that he reiterated in 2019. In 2022, Kharrazi said that Iran had the ability to make nuclear weapons but was undecided on the matter. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• On Tuesday, the IAEA chief said Iran’s cooperation has been “unsatisfactory,” as attempts have failed to get Iran to comply with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal that the US withdrew from in 2018. timesofisrael.com

Pro-establishment narrative:

• It is of the utmost importance that Israel curb its aggression against Iran to avoid inflaming further tensions. Instead, the global community needs to come together to isolate Iran and not give in to these brazen nuclear provocations, avoiding any direct confrontations. To avoid a disastrous war, and hasten the downfall of an unpopular regime, deterrence and isolation are the prudent choice.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• The genocidal regime in Tehran has indicated that it will rule out nothing to destroy Israel. While the West is focused on mollycoddling Iran, the ayatollah will continue working towards a nuclear arsenal and supporting a proxy war against Israel. Washington’s policy of restraint has not deterred Iran or its nuclear ambitions, but a strong show of force to protect Israel will.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The settler-colonial state of Israel is intent on wiping out any opposition to their antagonizing influence on the region. Iran is merely acting in their own self-interest in the face of ferocious Israeli and Western aggression and is entitled to take any steps necessary to ensure the survival of the republic. This statement is only of concern to those war-mongers who seek to destroy Iran.
  IRNA

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 51% chance Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)