Polls indicate a surge for the right across the continent in next month’s ballots but the centrists are still likely to hold sway in parliament
Far-right gains in next month’s European elections will be hard, if not impossible, to parlay into more power in parliament, experts say, but they could boost nationalist parties in EU capitals – with potentially greater consequences.
Polling suggests far-right and hardline conservative parties could finish first in nine EU states, including Austria, France and the Netherlands, in the polls between 6 and 9 June, and second or third in another nine, including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden.
The predicted rise of the far- right Identity and Democracy (ID) group and the conservative-nationalist European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) has sparked speculation about a “sharp right turn” in the European parliament, potentially jeopardising key EU projects such as the green deal.
ID, which includes Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) in France, Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ) and Vlaams Belang in Belgium, are on track to be the big winners – from 59 MEPs to perhaps 85.
Unfortunately, I think it’s unevitable for the far right to keep growing. Europe is suffering the contradictions of global capitalism devouring itself as it cannot continue increasing its profit margins, which has very noticeable consequences on people’s lives. Plenty of people aren’t going to turn towards far left options because, simply put, they’re prone to bigotry, and they’re never going to accept any position that aims to fully integrate everyone in freedom and equality. Many of those used to at least somewhat trust their traditional conservative parties, but once they grow angry enough, they need to find a solution - even if it isn’t real, even if it won’t solve their problems. And then they find a demagogue offering them a boogeyman, be they Jews, Muslims or queer people.
A big issue that I don’t see being discussed a lot is that randomized polling has become more difficult as less people are willing to pick up their phone for unknown numbers nowadays.
Most polling is now opt-in, meaning that the data will be biased towards the groups who want to express their opinions the most (this tends to be the far right). Not saying the polling is wrong but perhaps not entirely accurate
