Much of the preamble has been sourced from Michael Roberts’ recent analysis of Mexico.
Claudia Sheinbaum, part of the left-wing and populist Morena party to which AMLO also belongs, is now the first woman to ascend to the Mexican presidency. She is also a climate/energy scientist and was previously mayor of Mexico City. Results indicate that she has won with approximately 60% of the vote, which would be the highest vote percentage in Mexican history.
AMLO’s presidency has been generally successful. He campaigned on reducing violence inside Mexico, and while this has technically occurred if measured from 2018, homicides are still considerably higher than in 2010. This is largely due to warring drug cartels, which are more reflective of the United States and its rise in drug addiction and thus imports from Mexico. He also campaigned on reducing corruption, which he also kinda has, and also on reducing income inequality, which he also kinda has. The overall figures don’t show massive budges in income inequality, but the minimum wage has risen by 82% and manufacturing wage have risen 27%, and this plus other social programs has lifted 9 million Mexicans out of extreme poverty - a good achievement - but not much further than that, with poverty rates still above the Latin American average. Unemployment is officially at record lows, but much of this job growth has been in the informal sector.
The Mexican economy suffered greatly during the pandemic, and while growth since then has been pretty decent, the economy is still below where it was in 2018. As Mexican capitalists do not pay much in taxes, AMLO’s programs have required large budget deficits and borrowing. These capitalists are, of course, not doing many productive investments and thus there is not much productivity growth; productivity has been more-or-less stagnant for two decades. The reason why Mexican capitalists are not investing is because of the major decline in profitability since the 1990s - there is no reason to invest if your money is at major risk of not making a profit. Therefore, they have followed the trend of other national capitalists of investing in real estate and speculation, particularly in American companies.
Since NAFTA/USMCA, Mexico has become increasingly dependent on the United States for a location for its exports, while the US has exploited cheap labour in Mexico. Additionally, with the anti-Chinese sanctions increasingly put in place by the US, Mexico has become one of several conduits for China to redirect its goods so that they can still reach American markets. This has allowed Mexico to have an essentially balanced trade account and keep the peso relatively strong against the dollar.
Mexico’s limited fortunes will likely decline from here as the US economy continues to slow. If Trump is elected, he may decree protectionist policies which will hit a US-reliant Mexico quite hard. Additionally, industrial production has recently declined and retail spending is also down. AMLO’s presidency was genuinely beneficial for the poorest 50%, but the policies he created failed to really change the fundamentals of the economy. He relied on the private sector rather than the public sector. This is not entirely his fault - if he had tried to do anything terribly transformative, Mexico would have probably been hit hard with consequences by the US and simultaneously faced a domestic revolt by Mexican capitalists. There were and are already threats of outright invasion in response to the limited things AMLO has already done.
In an increasingly multipolar future in which America becomes weaker and weaker, it’s very possible that Mexico’s reliance on the US will decrease, allowing parties to be more radical without facing the possibility of facing crippling sanctions like Venezuela. However, Mexico’s sheer proximity to the US means that they might be among the last countries to break free of American influence, as the US will continue to bitterly resist any attempt to break down the Monroe Doctrine long after it loses Asia, Europe, and Africa. So, it seems likely that Sheinbaum may soon find herself in a situation where she is forced by capitalists to implement fiscal austerity regardless of her intentions, which is equivalent to a declaration of war on the working class. What happens then is anybody’s guess.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you’ve wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don’t worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Mexico! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
First chicken pox, now bird flu?! These poultry have it in for us!
I’m over COVID because quadruple vaxed and deaths are flat:
but bird flu bothers me. Don’t want to have to wear a mask and fear public spaces for three years straight again. Sigh.
Disabled and immunocompromised people explain why your life matters for the 5th time today challenge
I’m not in contact with any disabled or immunocompromised people and I’m not often in places with dense indoor populations but ok
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“If we stop testing, cases will go down.”
and if you have been paying attention at all deaths are often linked to various post-infection sequelae instead of covid directly so they can make pretty little charts for pretty little arguments just like what you’ve posted.
We are swimming in Covid. It never went anywhere, and it is only getting worse. You are being duped and I hope people like you wise up sooner than later.
I wore a mask for three years included a month or two before they even started telling people to wear masks (and even when they told people NOT to wear a mask, the idiots). I’ve been vaccinated four times against COVID. I am not at risk of long COVID because I don’t have any of the risk factors associated with long COVID. I am not in contact with disabled or immunocompromised people and I am rarely in densely populated indoor places. I stay inside when I’m sick, which is rarely ever. COVID was pretty fucking deadly when it first hit because we had no understanding of how to treat it, no treatment options available, and no immunity across the population. We have all of those things now, which is why COVID hospitalisation is relatively rare and patients hospitalised with COVID now have a very similar risk of dying to those hospitalised with flu (adjusted death rate, 5.70% vs 4.24% at 30 days; peer-reviewed source: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.7395). I’ve never been hospitalised with flu and I won’t be hospitalised with COVID, and I’m not going to spread it to anyone else because I’m not in contact with people that way. I appreciate your concerns and have shared them but they are misdirected. Respectfully, conspiracy theories that everyone is going to die from COVID are just as wrong as the conspiracy theories that COVID was a hoax. You’ve been blasted with clickbait for four years and it might be good for labs getting NIH grants but it isn’t good for your head.
Do you think immunocompromised people walk around with a big sign on their neck that reads “IMMUNOCOMPROMISED” or something? When you go out to the grocery store or to do whatever occasional chore, how do you know that none of the people around you are disabled or immunocompromised?
The majority of COVID cases are asymptomatic.
Of course, but NOBODY is wearing a mask any more, and me putting mine back on will make zero difference. The public have decided they are over it and they’re not going to lock down again.
[Citation Needed]
Your source shows 162 people in a place with a population of 5.6 MILLION were hospitalised with COVID. That’s a prevalence of 0.003%. Thanks for proving my point.
Are you also ignoring that even with a concerted state-backed effort to literally not report cases or deaths there are still- still- increases in frequency with what little fucking means we are given to report at all? Man you know what, never mind. I hope I never see your unmasked ass at a rally, dipshit. You and your attitude kill people like me. Fuck you forever. Before you tell me and every other IC person you apparently have shinigami eyes for to stay home or whatever, stay your ass home and never leave.
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You can still get long covid and kill disabled people.
Put on the mask, Shinji
Also, excess deaths are up becausw they dint count your sudden heart disease or diabetes 8 months later as covid. This shit is still deadly
I wore a mask for three years including a month or two before they even started telling people to wear masks (and even when they told people NOT to wear a mask, the idiots). I’ve been vaccinated four times against COVID. I am not at risk of long COVID because I don’t have any of the risk factors associated with long COVID. I am not in contact with disabled or immunocompromised people and I am rarely in densely populated indoor places. I stay inside when I’m sick, which is rarely ever. COVID was pretty fucking deadly when it first hit because we had no understanding of how to treat it, no treatment options available, and no immunity across the population. We have all of those things now, which is why COVID hospitalisation is relatively rare and patients hospitalised with COVID now have a very similar risk of dying to those hospitalised with flu (adjusted death rate, 5.70% vs 4.24% at 30 days; peer-reviewed source: https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2024.7395). I’ve never been hospitalised with flu and I won’t be hospitalised with COVID, and I’m not going to spread it to anyone else because I’m not in contact with people that way. I appreciate your concerns and have shared them but they are misdirected.
You can spread without showong systems and infectious diseases have a network effect, making you a disease vector for immunocompromised people you never even meet.
If you’ve had covid, even woth no symptoms, you will on average score 3 points lower on an IQ test and be at greater risk of early death from other causes – Covid can kill you earlier by fucking your immune system. It’s an autoimmune disease, and this, again, is true across all metrics, including young amd otherwise healthy people.
And it’s spiking in wastewater measures right now.
these people hem and haw about revolution and breaking chains or whatever and then tout the state line when it comes to an active exercise in eugenics before our eyes. incredible stuff, really.
These associations are not demonstrably casual. Just because someone ran a logistic regression or similar model on a cohort or cross sectional sample does not mean they have identified a causal association. It’s more likely that confounding was poorly adjusted for. Almost every study published on these techniques is bullshit. Spurious associations can be found in any dataset between any two variables if you fuck with the covariates and categories enough. Try it yourself. I am way too burned by the medical publishing industry. The more clickbaity the article, regardless of how bogus the analysis, the more likely it is to be published and distributed widely by science communicators, and sadly peer review does an extremely poor job of detecting and rejecting this stuff. I say this as a scientist in the field; the field is absolutely fucked. Another issue is that null findings (e.g., ‘we found no association between COVID infection and IQ’) rarely ever get published because journals prefer to publish exciting studies that will get them more clicks and downloads (i.e., ad revenue and article purchases). I would ask that you be more skeptical of correlation you read about in the media. They’ve had a frenzy over shitty COVID studies.
When was the last time any news outlet was “whipped to a frenzy” about motherfucking Covid, dude? Like three years ago? Do we live in the same reality? No, we do not. You are not the first scientist/medical practitioner/person who should know damn better to toe the state line on an ongoing humanitarian crisis for the sake of a comfortable status quo and I will take you just as seriously. You put shame to your practice, and judging by your admitted negligence and reticence, you’ll be in for an early retirement soon enough. Enjoy!
You literally just sent me a clickbait media article about COVID, demonstrating that the frenzy is alive and well, because there are still people to lap it up.
The reality is that this is not the pandemic it was four years ago. Most people have a significant level of immunity through vaccination and/or previous infection. Masks are in supply if you choose to wear them. Pharmaco treatments are available. Hospitals are not even close to being overwhelmed; we aren’t running out of hospital beds any time soon. The case fatality rate has dropped by one or more orders of magnitude. There was a time when lockdowns made sense to protect the public, because the benefits outweighed the risks. I was in favour of lockdowns then. Now that things have changed (and yes, they absolutely have) the benefits do not outweigh the risks. We are no longer in a pandemic, at least not like we were. That’s the reality, and most people get it. The world is ready and waiting for you to come back to it.
We’re asking for masks and maybe air filters, not lockdowns. Christ, admitting you’re a doctor just makes you a bigger asshole
I didn’t say I was a doctor lmao. I wear a mask during flu season, just not all of the time. Filters I can get behind for sure if shown to actually be effective, it will depend on the setting. Also increases energy consumption.
No causation proven but I’d love to hear a plausible counter-theory for why this all happened globally right after covid entered the chat, when Covid can plausibly do all of these things. You’d have half the world disabled in your quest for the perfect study because you’re annoyed by wearing a mask
This is such exaggeration. No, COVID has not disabled half of the world. And it won’t. IQs didn’t suddenly drop “right after COVID entered the chat”. This sort of speculation doesn’t help.