Some California House Democrats don’t want the process to replace the president on the ticket to seem like a Kamala Harris coronation.

  • tal@lemmy.todayOP
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    3 months ago

    I mean, it’s not a really simple result.

    I guess in a nutshell:

    • There is limited Trump-vs-Harris state polling data available. Some has to be predicted based on other polls, and there won’t be many sources to work with.

    • Harris polls slightly better nationwide than Biden, but it’s not by much.

    • However, the model they use, which makes use of information above-and-beyond just poll results, also predicts Biden to have a better chance of winning the Electoral College.

    • However, this model is built based on assumptions that may not hold for this particular unusual situation, and the authors are not sure how well those assumptions will hold up.