It’s exactly the opposite! Prediction/betting markets are possibly the most/only reliable way to forecast things with otherwise limited information. Prediction Markets are extremely accurate since being wrong makes people poor and they use every trick in the book to not be poor.

Huffing farts over here.

I played with prediction markets for fun for a while. They’re completely headline-driven and hype focused. I made a steady profit by betting against every “will X happen by Y deadline” available. Thus, while OpenAI has no business model and is a doomed company, I would not take that guy’s bet.