The US Defense Department’s grand strategy for protecting Taiwan from a massive Chinese military offensive involves flooding the zone with thousands of drones.
That’s not how diplomacy works. You can’t just declare the outcome you want and expect the PRC to abide by it when they have no incentive to. The PRC also likely believes that if they ever recognized Taiwan as independent the US would immediately look to set up military bases on Kinmen and other islands Taiwan controls. They rightly see that as massive threat to their ability to trade if the US ever decided to try and enforce a blockade.
Don’t doubt that the US has always wanted to exert military pressure on the PRC. It’s why the US supported Chiang Kai-shek’s militarily and then protected his retreat to Taiwan with the US navy. It’s why they continued to support the KMT and the ROC as the legitimate government of China even as they were massacring the indigenous people’s of Taiwan. The Korean War was also viewed by the PRC as an extension of US aggression against its regional security. They weren’t really wrong either. Douglas MacArthur famously wanted to go so far as to nuke the PRC into submission during the Korean War. US-PRC relations only really got better after the Soviet-Sino split when the US saw they could use the PRC as an instrument against the USSR. However, even today the US aims to maintain military supremacy in the region and so it continues its military first approach towards the situation with Taiwan. The ROC’s transition to a liberal democracy means nothing to them.
The PRC looks at that all and it just confirms their fears about the US. If you wanted an actually diplomatic solution it would almost certainly require that the US military is excluded from Taiwanese land. With that, I’d be willing to bet the PRC would agree to a solution which maintains the pretext of “one China” under the guise of an economic union even as Taiwan maintains full political autonomy. The reality is though that neither the US nor the current Taiwanese government have given any indication that’s a negotiation they’re willing to have. As such, tensions rise and the people of Taiwan are left to wonder if war is coming without having any serious ability to stop it.
“One Country, Two Systems”: Hong Kong, along with Macau, are the only territories in the People’s Republic of China to supposedly enjoy a “high degree of autonomy” and freedom under the “One Country, Two Systems” principle as guaranteed by the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Hong Kong Basic Law.
Hong Kong even has their own government (which was undermined by the CCP), of course it’s relevant.
Taiwan would first become a puppet of China, then forcefully gets fully integrated. There won’t be any independence, especially not economic independence as China wants the chip factories.
Im seriously trying to work with you here. It’s very clear when I said “full autonomy” I did not mean only a “high degree of autonomy” as was the case with Hong Kong. Please listen to what I said and don’t get side tracked by imagining how a made up solution that you invented is doomed.
Yes, they could work out a pretense of “One China” while staying separate and just adding a trade deal on top. Just as Ukraine agreed to be independent, give up their nuclear weapons and live in peace with Russia, having guarantees they wouldn’t be attacked.
Sorry, but the only thing I’d accept is China declaring Taiwan as its own independent country. They can add a trade deal on top or whatever else they want to sweeten the deal, but that’s what it takes. As long as China keeps up the idea that Taiwan belongs to them this is never going to work out.
That’s not how diplomacy works. You can’t just declare the outcome you want and expect the PRC to abide by it when they have no incentive to. The PRC also likely believes that if they ever recognized Taiwan as independent the US would immediately look to set up military bases on Kinmen and other islands Taiwan controls. They rightly see that as massive threat to their ability to trade if the US ever decided to try and enforce a blockade.
Don’t doubt that the US has always wanted to exert military pressure on the PRC. It’s why the US supported Chiang Kai-shek’s militarily and then protected his retreat to Taiwan with the US navy. It’s why they continued to support the KMT and the ROC as the legitimate government of China even as they were massacring the indigenous people’s of Taiwan. The Korean War was also viewed by the PRC as an extension of US aggression against its regional security. They weren’t really wrong either. Douglas MacArthur famously wanted to go so far as to nuke the PRC into submission during the Korean War. US-PRC relations only really got better after the Soviet-Sino split when the US saw they could use the PRC as an instrument against the USSR. However, even today the US aims to maintain military supremacy in the region and so it continues its military first approach towards the situation with Taiwan. The ROC’s transition to a liberal democracy means nothing to them.
The PRC looks at that all and it just confirms their fears about the US. If you wanted an actually diplomatic solution it would almost certainly require that the US military is excluded from Taiwanese land. With that, I’d be willing to bet the PRC would agree to a solution which maintains the pretext of “one China” under the guise of an economic union even as Taiwan maintains full political autonomy. The reality is though that neither the US nor the current Taiwanese government have given any indication that’s a negotiation they’re willing to have. As such, tensions rise and the people of Taiwan are left to wonder if war is coming without having any serious ability to stop it.
How well the diplomatic solution of “One China, while keeping their autonomy” works could be seen with Hong Kong. Lol.
Free Hong Kong, fuck the CCP.
Taiwan should be an independent country, full stop.
Hong Kong doesn’t have full political autonomy. It never did, not under the British nor under the PRC. How’s that at all relevant to what I said?
Hong Kong even has their own government (which was undermined by the CCP), of course it’s relevant.
Taiwan would first become a puppet of China, then forcefully gets fully integrated. There won’t be any independence, especially not economic independence as China wants the chip factories.
Im seriously trying to work with you here. It’s very clear when I said “full autonomy” I did not mean only a “high degree of autonomy” as was the case with Hong Kong. Please listen to what I said and don’t get side tracked by imagining how a made up solution that you invented is doomed.
Oh, I fully understand you, I just hate the idea.
Yes, they could work out a pretense of “One China” while staying separate and just adding a trade deal on top. Just as Ukraine agreed to be independent, give up their nuclear weapons and live in peace with Russia, having guarantees they wouldn’t be attacked.
Sorry, but the only thing I’d accept is China declaring Taiwan as its own independent country. They can add a trade deal on top or whatever else they want to sweeten the deal, but that’s what it takes. As long as China keeps up the idea that Taiwan belongs to them this is never going to work out.