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Australia’s winter of 2023 was the warmest since official records began in 1910, with average daily temperatures 1.53C above the long-term average.
Global heating and weather conditions that delivered sunny days were behind the record, scientists said.
For maximum temperatures, the 2023 winter was 1.85C above average, ranking second behind the mark of 1.94C set in 2017.
El Nińos are linked to higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific but while those conditions are present, the bureau has said it has not yet seen a consistent weakening of the east-to-west trade winds that are also typical of the climate pattern.
"We are already seeing longer fire seasons, and an increase in the number of dangerous fire weather days over most of Australia. We don’t know yet how global warming, and particularly the increased warmth in the oceans, is affecting our typical climate drivers."Our climate forecast model is consistent with the international climate forecasts that show Australia is trending dry and warm for the coming season, particularly in the south-west and much of south-eastern Australia.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Queensland, Tasmania and New South Wales all experienced their hottest winters on record, with all other states and territories seeing temperatures in the top 10 years for heat.
Scientists are concerned an expected El Nińo climate pattern that increases the chances of hotter and drier conditions could bring a dangerous summer of bushfires.
Dr Andrew King, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, said the winter warmth was “pretty consistent with the trend towards warming that we have already seen and expect to continue as we keep emitting greenhouse gases”.
King said the high-pressure systems that brought the extra warmth were “part of the story”, adding “we would not get the temperatures that we have seen this winter really happening without human-caused climate change”.
Australia’s weather bureau has stopped short of declaring an El Nińo, despite the World Meteorlogical Organization and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration both stating the system is in place.
El Nińos are linked to higher than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific but while those conditions are present, the bureau has said it has not yet seen a consistent weakening of the east-to-west trade winds that are also typical of the climate pattern.
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