Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Since people have been talking about nukes lately, if the IOF dropped a tactical nuke in southern Lebanon, how would people conclusively proof that a tactical nuke was actually dropped assuming that:
The Zionist entity lies about dropping the tactical nuke with a shit-eating grin
The US covers up the tactical nuke by falsifying radiation readings from their satellites
The US accuses the radiation readings picked up by Russian/Chinese/Iranian satellites of Russian/Chinese/Iranian disinformation
I guess my question is how obvious would it be that a tactical nuke was dropped instead of just a really large conventional bomb assuming you couldn’t rely on detecting radiation from the crater?
My hunch is that if it was a sufficiently low enough yield, neither the US nor Israel would deny it. Rather, the US in particular would start pushing very hard a narrative that “well sure, technically it was a nuke but its not really all that different from a MOAB, and people wouldn’t be complaining about that. People just hear ‘nuke’ and get don’t see it rationally”. Basically try and make it seem like a tactical nuke isn’t really a “nuke” and instead more like a really big conventional bomb.
I guess that doesn’t actually answer your question, though. Thing is, Lebanon isn’t Gaza. They can actually get people in there who can test it and show a nuke went off. If the recent past is any indication though, the US will just tell the public “who are you gonna believe, me or your own lying eyes?”; and that seems to work on Americans pretty well.
I thought about that angle as well. It’s a good (and scary) way to normalize the use of nukes. The idea is they start off small with indistinguishable-from-a-MOAB-with-depleted-uranium tactical nukes and work their way up. And the really scary part is there’s no hard line between a tactical nuke and a strategic nuke. Are base busters strategic nukes? How about neighborhood busters? How about dropping a tactical nuke in the middle of a metropolitan downtown that leaves a giant crater in the middle of the city while keeping the rest of the city intact? How about dropping a tactical nuke on a port that doesn’t completely obliterate the port but leaves it 65% destroyed and virtually inoperable for years to come?
Americans believed that Russia blew up their own pipeline. They’ll believe Lebanon nuked itself
If it is low enough yield to be within the conventional range, what would even be the point of using tactical nukes and then trying to keep it secret? The whole point of nuclear weapons, apart from being able to make a really big boom, is that they terrorise people. You want everyone to know that you have these apocalyptic weapons and that you are deranged enough to use them.
Dropping tactical nukes could be seen by zionist leadership as a way of restoring their reputation as unbeatable madmen but then they would be public about it.
I think the IAEA would supply “unbiased” readings. They would never say “israel used a nuke” but they would say “a nuke was used.” From their responses to the Zaporizhzhia shelling its pretty clear they are fairly western aligned but at the same time they aren’t totally captured. They never condemned either side but did say that the strikes on the plant were stupid and needed to stop.
Thing is, all the lying they do is primarily for the benefit of western audiences, who are quite happy disbelieving their own eyes.
If the situation goes nuclear (even only “tactically”) their number one priority would, I hope, be to calm down every other nuclear power. And those aren’t gonna as be impressed by NYT op eds the way brunch libs are
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https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/is--israel--using-small-nuclear-weapons-in-gaza-and-south-le They apparently used small nuclear weapons in '06
They didn’t, this article is written by a crank scientist. Christopher Busby is the same guy that grifted post Fukushima nuclear disaster with his “anti radiation medication”.
I think if Israel nukes anyone, Yemen will be first. They’ve been doing a lot of economic damage to Israel, and they’re far enough away that fallout wouldn’t be as much of an issue as a closer target.