“We’ve assessed how far Ukrainian forces have really progressed… The area to the south-east of the city of Zaporizhzhia is by far the most strategically important… There hasn’t been much progress on this front… We have verified nine social media videos along the frontline near Verbove… However, these show incursions, not that Ukraine has managed to take control of the area. So far it has only been Ukrainian infantry getting through, and we’re not seeing Ukrainian armoured columns pouring through, exploiting the gap and holding the ground taken… Ukraine’s first attempt to charge through [Russian defences] in June quickly ended in failure, with its modern, Western-supplied armour crippled and burning. Ukrainian infantry came similarly unstuck, taking horrific casualties… for Kyiv, the clock is ticking. The rainy season will arrive within weeks, turning the roads to mud and hindering further advances. Beyond that lies the uncertainty of the US presidential elections, where a Republican victory could see US military support for Ukraine dramatically slashed.”