A new analysis by Hansen and colleagues concludes that both the impact of recent cuts in sun-blocking shipping pollution, which has raised temperatures, and the sensitivity of the climate to increasing fossil fuels emissions are greater than thought.
The group’s results are at the high end of estimates from mainstream climate science but cannot be ruled out, independent experts said. If correct, they mean even worse extreme weather will come sooner and there is a greater risk of passing global tipping points,
Evwrtyhings on course for the collpaee if civilisation under the weight of human stupidity :)
Those projections were never realistic. They were the optimistic “best case scenario” which the IPCC — a political org funded by fossil fuel dependent economies — touted as the “most likely” average, when it never held more than a 50/50 chance even if everything went to plan.
The whole 1.5 - 3c “likelihood” was dependent on major variables we don’t actually control (like how much carbon the remaining forests absorb), and confounding variables (like feedback loops and major weather systems reversing/collapsing) were downgraded or completely ignored due to a horrific level of uncertainty/unknowability. In statistics, if you don’t have real world data and can’t analyze a variable with any reasonable degree of confidence, you tend to omit it entirely.
Most of the actual climate scientists have been saying we’re on track for the worst case scenarios due to this and actual weather patterns (we’ve been hugging the upper limit of projected warming the entire time).
Man I remember when IPCC scientists quit in protest because the organization refused to let them publish a report containing the sentence “incremental changes will not be a viable solution to global warming” back in like 2016 or 2018. Fuck I can’t even find it on Google anymore, i swear this was real.
I remember it too. I feel like Winston in 1984. “Was the picture real or did I just imagine it …?”