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- cross-posted to:
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Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data
Archived version: https://archive.is/newest/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
The impact risk corridor isn’t anywhere near Russia.
See: https://iawn.net//documents/NOTIFICATIONS/IAWN_Potential_Impact_Notification_2024_YR4.pdf
Here’s an image to visualise if that’s more to your liking: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8a/2024_YR4_risk_corridor.png
I’m confused how they can be so certain where it will hit but not if. I would think basically that while side of the planet is within the region of uncertainty. I guess it’s probably because they can define the orbit in a plane rather precisely, but within that plane, other axes are more difficult to get precision numbers on.
Pretty sure I am in the “survived the initial impact, now get to suffer.”
I guess it depends of the point of reference. I would say that looks pretty close to Russia.
Impact Risk Corridor: The impact risk corridor for 2024 YR4, which is the region of Earth along which a potential impact could occur, extends across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia