I expect Trump will try and get concessions on at least one of those from Putin and I would not be surprised if Putin ultimately agrees on something in exchange for US support in doing regime change in Ukraine so Russia doesn’t have to push its military force all the way to the far west of the country and try and deal with dismantling the whole thing itself. No NATO is too important to give up. No NATO peacekeepers the same (at least in any meaningful number). That leaves the options of Trump demanding and getting something like denazification not being completed though they are demilitarized in exchange Russia gets the 4 Donbass regions and Crimea recognized and the rest of Ukraine becomes a rump state of extremely angry nationalists possibly under patrol by a UN mandate peacekeeping force instead of NATO which the west will spin as them stopping Russia from taking all of Ukraine.
I admit it’s possible that Russia gets all its objectives but I have the feeling Putin would rather not fight Ukraine fall of Berlin style where the west supplies them to fight to the last Ukrainian and keeps the sanctions on and in order to get sanctions relief and international recognition for the territorial reality I expect Putin will be flexible in some way to allow the west some amount of cope-laden face-saving. Ukraine is going to get fucked over hard by western capitalists of course and I expect that any deal will include respecting their grabs of resources and possibly striking discount deals on minerals and such from the new Russian regions under decade+ contracts at very favorable terms for the west or something like that.
I really can’t see Putin giving in on any of these myself. These are the red lines Russia outlined a while back, and they remained consistent on their position. If anything, I think it’s likely that Russia plans to take more territory as opposed to less. The reality is that Russia is in a very strong bargaining position here. The US very clearly wants to extricate itself from the war, and time is on Russia’s side. If the US doesn’t accept the deal, then Russia will just continue to do what it’s doing.
Furthermore, the Kursk collapse couldn’t have come at a worse time for the US. There are pretty much no fortifications in the Sumy region, and Russia can just keep rolling all the way to Kiev from there. The AFU has no choice but to try and stop that by pulling troops from the southern front that’s already collapsing. The longer the US waits to make a deal the strong position Russia will be in.
If I was Putin, I wouldn’t agree to such a ceasefire. Denazification is a must at this point, along with all the other demands. If the nazis are left running whatever is left from Ukraine, in 10-20 years, this whole thing will be repeated again. We’ve seen how Syria turned out.
I expect Trump will try and get concessions on at least one of those from Putin and I would not be surprised if Putin ultimately agrees on something in exchange for US support in doing regime change in Ukraine so Russia doesn’t have to push its military force all the way to the far west of the country and try and deal with dismantling the whole thing itself. No NATO is too important to give up. No NATO peacekeepers the same (at least in any meaningful number). That leaves the options of Trump demanding and getting something like denazification not being completed though they are demilitarized in exchange Russia gets the 4 Donbass regions and Crimea recognized and the rest of Ukraine becomes a rump state of extremely angry nationalists possibly under patrol by a UN mandate peacekeeping force instead of NATO which the west will spin as them stopping Russia from taking all of Ukraine.
I admit it’s possible that Russia gets all its objectives but I have the feeling Putin would rather not fight Ukraine fall of Berlin style where the west supplies them to fight to the last Ukrainian and keeps the sanctions on and in order to get sanctions relief and international recognition for the territorial reality I expect Putin will be flexible in some way to allow the west some amount of cope-laden face-saving. Ukraine is going to get fucked over hard by western capitalists of course and I expect that any deal will include respecting their grabs of resources and possibly striking discount deals on minerals and such from the new Russian regions under decade+ contracts at very favorable terms for the west or something like that.
I really can’t see Putin giving in on any of these myself. These are the red lines Russia outlined a while back, and they remained consistent on their position. If anything, I think it’s likely that Russia plans to take more territory as opposed to less. The reality is that Russia is in a very strong bargaining position here. The US very clearly wants to extricate itself from the war, and time is on Russia’s side. If the US doesn’t accept the deal, then Russia will just continue to do what it’s doing.
Furthermore, the Kursk collapse couldn’t have come at a worse time for the US. There are pretty much no fortifications in the Sumy region, and Russia can just keep rolling all the way to Kiev from there. The AFU has no choice but to try and stop that by pulling troops from the southern front that’s already collapsing. The longer the US waits to make a deal the strong position Russia will be in.
God I hope the Trump admin keeps bickering with Ukraine and Europe to give them enough time to humiliate themselves.
If I was Putin, I wouldn’t agree to such a ceasefire. Denazification is a must at this point, along with all the other demands. If the nazis are left running whatever is left from Ukraine, in 10-20 years, this whole thing will be repeated again. We’ve seen how Syria turned out.