• 153 Posts
  • 192 Comments
Joined 7 months ago
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Cake day: November 21st, 2023

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  • There’s two ways to look at this:

    1. If Ukraine wasn’t selecting flight paths that pass over civilians, this wouldn’t have happened

    2. If Russia wasn’t intercepting these missiles, this wouldn’t have happened

    Both of those statements are insane, so let’s talk about the real problem of cluster munitions. Clusrer munitions are an absolutely disgusting weapon, and their usage basically salts the ground indefinitely because it’s guaranteed that not all clusters will detonate. Cluster munitions, when intercepted, cause mass civilian casualty events because they are inherently anti-personnel weapons. Cluster munitions should not be used in populated areas. Russia drew condemnation for this in 2022 Ukraine and earlier in Georgia. Ukraine should draw condemnation for this in 2024.

    The UN Convention on Cluster Munitions happened in 2010. The primary users of cluster munitions are the US (and it’s allies) and Russia (who does not export them afaik). As signatories to the CCM, EU states should condemn the usage of cluster munitions by it’s allies. For obvious reasons, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia absolutely despise cluster munitions (even today, people die because of the ones dropped during the Vietnam War).

    The foundations of international law should not be flouted because of geopolitical tensions. If the US and Russia want to sow the seeds of suffering and misery, let them, but letting cluster munitions proliferate is bad for humanity.



  • People can say that China’s been escalating the situation all they want, but the facts are that realpolitik necessitates doing something. China needs to show ASEAN two things simultaneously:

    1. Aligning with China is beneficial

    2. Aligning with the US is harmful

    (1) Is easy: China FDI outflows to ASEAN countries have been absurd, China is dumping money to connect Vietnam to China’s HSR network (at cost), improving Cambodia’s role in international trade through canal construction, obscene EV deals in Indonesia/Malaysia, and more.

    (2) is much more difficult. Many ASEAN countries have been trying to thread the needle between taking Chinese money and accessing US markets. The Philippines is, obviously, the most egregious player here. China is trying to show ASEAN that aligning with the US has consequences (in contrast, Duterte’s Philippines had a very healthy relationship with China), especially as China looks to build a regional trade superbloc akin to NAFTA.











  • The Philippine navy inherited the former U.S. tank-landing ship USS Harnett County in 1976, and ran it deliberately aground at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. The Sierra Madre is now effectively a shipwreck, but the Philippine military has not decommissioned it. This makes the ship an extension of the government and means any attack on the ship is tantamount to an assault against the Philippines. Manila deploys civilian boats with a fresh batch of marines and 10 tons of food for resupply. In a bid to draw global attention to what Philippine officials have called China’s bullying tactics, they have invited more than a dozen journalists, TV cameramen and photographers to come along on the 30-hour-plus journey from the Philippine mainland.