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I think #1 adequately represents the chance of nothing happening, which is pretty high all things considered.

I only recall finding a few through the campaign, wish I had found more as they are really cool. Just like the ones Guild Wars 2 added in to their game, a nice little break from killing shit.

I agree, I tend to stick around the ToW and stash any gear I may need to properly review until I am done farming, at which point I return to a big town like Kyovashad or similar and mill around there until I have done everything I need to.