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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • The ukrainian military also have checkpoints in the west border to make sure any male between 18 and 60 doesn’t leave the country so that they can be forced into war.

    In the west, you should expect to find the border guard. They are capable of checking databases and patrolling in nature, but aren’t heavily armed. And tens of thousands of guys have taken leave on their own, despite anything the border guard can do. If one doesn’t like the draft, one hikes out via the Carpathian mountains.

    As for the draft, yes, it’s a real thing. Of course it’s unjust, people should be able to live in peace - hence no agressor should invade any land. Having to take up weapons sucks. But when a war on this scale gets started, states will draft soldiers into their armies. Many will dodge it. Since hundreds of thousands of soldiers are needed, lots of mistakes will be made, and will be sorted out later (units don’t actually want soldiers who aren’t capable of fighting).

    Ultimately, who was called up but absolutely doesn’t want to fight, must choose among these roles:

    • emigree
    • medical personnel
    • defense industry
    • logistics
    • dodger
    • jailed dodger

    Obviously, everyone is not competent to become a medic. The remaining positions are attainable. So, in the end, it’s mostly people willing to fight at least somewhat, who end up fighting. Some of them get disillusioned and desert, however. That’s normal too, in a large war that lasts long. I don’t hold it against them.

    I’m not from Ukraine, and not a military person, but I cooperate with military people, supplying drones and stuff that helps bring hostile drones down (profit is not involved). So inevitably I do know the approximate situation.

    I’ve read some things by Malatesta before (not much from Goldman), so thanks for the reading tips. There is a nuance, though. Once some country has started a conquest attempt, any disarmament will only give them victory. Disarmament is only possible when it’s mutual, and then I fully support it. The article by Goldman that you suggested seems to originate from 1915, when World War I was being fought in Europe. I remind that World War I had no clear agressor, and indeed, anarchists of all countries tried to overthrow the ruling regimes (which were mostly undemocratic, frequently dictatorial and imperial).

    The current situation somewhat differs. There is a clear agressor, which happens to be a dictatorship and an empire, supported by other dictatorships and a messed up theocracy. There happens to be a clearly defined victim of agression, which happens to be mostly democratic, supported by places that are reasonably democratic. I believe that if Malatesta lived today, I could convince him to start a charity that supplies Ukrainians. :)

    I hope for revolutionary conditions to arise in Russia, but that will be a long wait. My comrades there tried and lost, they’ve mostly emigrated by now. Some are imprisoned, some still keep trying (I can’t estimate what the percentages are, people don’t talk openly of such things), but there are approximately 4 times as much cops per capita in Russia compared to a normal country, so their chances are miserable.


  • If you are sure about something, then bring evidence of considerable off-label activities.

    In response to your response about “Nordic Response”:

    Surveillance, patrols, road control posts, vehicle inspection, control of air space, minesweeping, evacuation of civilians, and riot control were important part of the exercise.”

    Those are realistic military duties in war time. Every military practises them. Where do you find a fault?

    An example from real life: the Ukrainian military has checkpoints on roads near the frontline. Moving with a vehicle, you’d expect to show papers, say a few words and maybe even show transported goods. The purpose? Finding reconnaisance / sabotage groups, which every competent enemy is expected to send. If an opponent doesn’t send recon or saboteurs, they are fools. If a military doesn’t learn how to deter those, they’re fools.

    How does one learn? After dry reading in a classroom: one holds an excercise. There’s a home team and an opposing team. The home team checks, the opposing team infiltrates. Both teams report what they achieved, results get compared. If the blue team found the “saboteurs”, good. If the red team “blew up” all bridges and pipelines in the area, people think hard about what they did wrong. If they don’t practise, they don’t get to think hard.




  • So, NATO had a problematic operation, trying to establish (and coordinate the establishment of) guerilla stay-behind troops to use in the event of Soviet takeover - and the operation went especially problematic in Italy during the Years of Lead, where some of those guys associated with right-wing terrorists. The year was 1969 or so.

    Basing on this, how do I conclude anything about the NATO of today?

    Disclaimer: I was asked to hold an anti NATO speech during a protest event during a NATO summit. Being a moderately honest anarchist, I held a speech denouncing the practises seen in Afghanistan (the year was 2012), but emphasized that collective self defense is a valuable thing to have (a common attitude here in Eastern Europe), and added that if the alliance would bother doing what it says on the sticker, I would support it.

    NATO is an alliance of various countries. Some of them aren’t nice or democratic (classic example: Turkey). Mixed bag, and constantly changing. Membership in NATO is not a letter of indulgence for a member state to do anything - allies are obliged to help only if someone attacks a member state. If a NATO member attacks someone else, allies can ignore the affair or even oppose the member (example: Turkey recently bombed Kurdish troops in Syria so sloppily that threatened US troops shot down a Turkish drone).



  • Quick analysis: the US flushed itself down the toilet.

    • Likely fact: Republicans now control all 4 towers of the castle (president, senate, house of representatives and surpreme court).

    • Conclusion: the situation allows Republicans to steamroll legislation into force.

    • Further conclusion: US voters really don’t understand what they are doing.

    Climate: it’s bad, but one president’s rule is short. Trump will withdraw from the Paris treaty and sabotage domestic attempts to curb emissions. Europe and China will continue their attempts because they haven’t changed, and they want energy independence. Climate is a system with great inertia. We are beaten by the mistakes of previous decades, new generations will be beaten by our mistakes. Increasingly hard.

    Ukraine: the situation is very bad. The Biden administration won approval for 60 billion of support in spring, but according to Zelensky, only 10% has been delivered so far. Unless the DoD hurries the hell out of itself, Trump will close the tap on aid that Biden secured. Trump will try diplomacy, but Putin’s administration is made of a different sort of people. They are running for life while Trumpists are running for lunch. Putin will politely send him where sun doesn’t shine and continue grinding meat, now with an added flavour of North Korean. Ukraine faces a very difficult choice: fight a retreating war in conditions of decreasing aid, hoping that revolutionary conditions arise in Russia… or make peace with the attacker, giving them territory. Ukraine will need all the assistance it can get from anywhere. Knowing this, and knowing the risk of a Trump re-election, I started developing a drone system 6 months ago. It has gone through many iterations and might be capable of combat in the coming month. I didn’t sign up to live in a world like this, but hey, you take what you’re given. :(

    If the war in Ukraine gives Putin territory and peace as a result, Putin and his heirs know that you can get territory and peace with war: any place in Eastern Europe could be next.

    In summer, Congress locked away the keys for leaving NATO, but Republicans now control both houses and Trump has cleansed the party of dissenters. Trump can credibly threaten to withdraw from NATO or actually do it.

    Taiwan needs to find more alliances, because the US might become unreliable, and China knows this. The rest of the world needs to think if they can do without electronics during a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan.

    Democracy in the US: will be dismantled in favour of something like Hungary. We will see ministers who are oligarchs like Musk or irresponsible liars like Kennedy. Since the storm is near-perfect, I predict that democracy will give way to oligarchy. Risk of disturbances, repressions and internal conflict will grow.

    Until now, only unstable people wanted to assassinate Trump. Given these conditions, I predict that stable but ruthless people who see a danger to their future will join the game. They will reason as follows: “risk has reached certainty and there is still time to prevent outcomes”. If I was working in the Secret Service, I would increase protection on Trump 10 times (unless I hated him).





  • Ideally, people should try to get them Jas-39 Gripen with MBDA Meteor missiles to back up the F-16 fleet.

    Currently, the situation seems to be: F-16 pilots are still inexperienced and their missiles are outranged by some missiles that a Su-35 could be carrying (e.g. R-77M with 190 km range). When a Su-34 (fighter-bomber) conducts glide bombing runs from a distance of 40 km, a Su-35 (air superiority fighter) typically provides it air cover. Under such conditions, it’s a difficult task for an F-16 pilot to fire an AMRAAM at the bomber (at best 180 km range) and evade counter-fire from the fighter. Fortunately they’ve got shiny new ECM pods and hopefully Russian planes haven’t got decent radars.

    However, a plane with longer range weapons (Meteor can fly for 200 km) would deter even a fighter escort of the Su-34, and likely end glide bombing as a tactic.

    Alternatively, one can hope that the actual range of AMRAAM exceeds the advertised range or the actual range of R-77M falls short of advertised range - or that they have better radars, or can somehow backport Meteor to F-16, or that their ECM can beat the electronics of R-77. However, as far as I’m aware, firing an AMRAAM from maximum range needs a really big target (actual bomber, not a fighter-bomber).

    Either way, good to hear it happened. :) If it happens more, it might finally deter glide bombing. So far, air defense ambushes have also temporarily deterred it and drones have struck airfields where the Su-34 planes get equipped, but nothing has stopped it for long.





  • If conservative means “cautious and wary of unexpected results”, “disillusioned with methods that we tried and failed with” or maybe even “equipped with experience of successful and failed cooperation with various sorts of people”, then yes. Already before age 50, I’m spoiled with various good and bad experiences. I cannot exclude that as my tendency to explore decreases (psychology tends to affirm this trend), I may get prejudiced too. I may have to figure out something to counter it.

    But if conservative means that I suddenly don’t want a society with equality and without hierarchy, then - nope.


  • it’s probably talking about YOU

    Seems very unlikely. Suppose that global population is 7 billion. One percent is 70 million then. Neither “you and me” or “EU and me” are good analogies. The population of the EU is ~450 million, the population of the US is 330 million - with a bunch of additional “western” countries lumped in, let’s say - one billion. That is 14% of the global population, far above 1%.

    The examined 1% includes people who are better not characterized as “being able to afford browsing Lemmy”, but rather being able to afford multiple households in a developed country (or more in an under-developed country). More or less: “people who can come up with one megabuck if they badly want”.

    Some informative graphics, which by the way contradict the title claim of the post. I don’t know which one is right, the title says 1% = 95%, but Wikipedia says 1% = 46%. And it looks bad the other way too, since 55% = 1%…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distribution_of_wealth


  • Speculation has it that either “Palyantsia” (small turbojet drone) or “Neptun” (sizable cruise missile, antiship with ground strike capability) were used. Since part of the Russian facility was hardened and underground, I would ordinarily favour the hypothesis of “Neptun”, but it’s supposed to be out of their range and the videos recorded over Russia featured a turbojet sound and the video you linked has a small explosion (this would fit “Palyantsia”, since it’s small).







  • 2007/2008 aasta talve tippsündmuseks kujunes siseminister Jüri Pihli ennekuulmatu “politseiriigi seaduste” pakett, mis pidi muutma tosinat eri seadust, kriminaliseerides nii koosolekul rahumeelselt põhiseadusliku korra muutmise nõuded kui näo varjamise, lubades dokumenteerimata vahistamisi ja andes politseiametnikule voli avalikke koosolekuid üsna suvaliselt laiali saata.

    Oli selge, et minister on Pronksiööst nii suure šoki saanud, et kadunud on igasugune kartus astuda autoritaarsuse nõlvale ja libiseda alla politseiriiki. Ärge pange kunagi siseministriks endist Kapo direktorit.

    Kirjutasime artikleid, ehitasime veebilehe, kogusime ligi 10 000 allkirja. Tegime koostööd Kaheksanda Mai Liikumise rahvaga. Meile pakkus koostööd Öine Vahtkond (kremlimeelsed ja Pronksiööga seotud aktivistid), aga saatsime nad viisakult kuu loojangu suunas.

    Registreerisime rongkäigu. Politsei oli suu ammuli, üritas natuke kobiseda, aga mõistis - demokraatiasse kuulub ka politsei õigustele vastu töötamine. Kaardistades meeleavalduse eelõhtul marsruudi turvalisust, tuli Toompeal vastu töölt koju jalutav Jüri Pihl. Ütlesime tere, kallale ei läinud, ministril on kah eraelu. Tšau, pakaa, näeme homme.

    Meeleavaldus oli suur ja kärarikas. Stenbocki maja ees peeti kõnesid, mis ilmselt jõudsid valitsuse inimestele kohale. Justiitsministeerium oli juba varem avastanud, et eelnõust on kogukas osa ilmselt põhiseadusega vastuolus. Eelnõu lammutati tükkideks, osad paraku võeti vastu (muuseas legaliseeriti elektrišokirelvad).

    Eelnõu kõigi tükkidega võitlemiseks polnud meil jaksu ega avalikkusel tähelepanu. Ajakirjandusel ei jätkunud tähelepanu isegi tervikliku eelnõude paketi jaoks, neid huvitas elektrišokirelv rohkem, kui põhiseaduslike õiguste piiramine. Ei ole saladus, et demokraatia töötab tähelepanuvaeguse oludes veidi nõrgalt.

    Paraadiga elektrišokirelva vastu

    Kalle Laanet: taser ei sobi igale politseinikule

    Kaheksanda Mai Liikumise blogi, kus on muuseas säilinud ürituse lendleht, mille postitusele lisan:

    Kampaania "Ei politseiriigile!" lendleht

    Järgnenud kevadel algas majahõivajate liikumine. Enne jäi mainimata, et osa inspiratsiooni majahõivamise alustamiseks saabus ka Soomest, kus igal kevadel squatterid midagi üle võtsid, enamasti kaotasid kuid vahest ka hoidsid. Kevadel 2008 oli Helsingis avatud squat “Rajasaari” (lagunema jäetud sõudebaas), kus ka mina käisin.

    Squat “Volk” (nime tekkel aitas üks venekeelne aktivist, kes joonistas elutoa seinale efektse multifilmi-hundi) kestis politseimaja vastas Pärnu maanteel (seal, kus praegu on Eesti Loto peakorter) umbes poolteist aastat. Samal ajal suunasid oma jõupingutused püsiva koha loomisele ka Tartu aktivistid, kes vanas Pärmivabrikus (legaalselt, ilma hõivamata) A-raamatukogu sisse seadsid - seal sai aega veeta ja laenutada temaatilist kirjandust.

    Minu energia suurem osa kulus squatile. Nägin, et keegi välja ajama ei torma, kuid naabermaja hõivanud bomžid elavad halvasti, tuleb teha targemini - tegutseda suvel, et talv ei oleks talumatu. Parandasin lekkivad kohad plekk-katuses, panin rõdu katusele uue bituumeni, et all asuvasse tuppa ei tilguks, trepikoja katusele tuli rakmete ja kiivriga minna ja tõrvapapp monteerida. Keldrisse tuli paigaldada minimaalsed solgitorud, et solk uuesti kanalisatsiooni jõuaks. Loomulikult seinte värvimine, akende tihendamine, interneti näppamine Kaitseliidu osakonnast kaugel üle raudtee (aitäh jagamast ka muid hüvesid peale kollektiivse kaitsevõime :D ) ja päikesepaneelide süsteemi laiendamine, et tuled õhtul põleda saaks.

    Protestiaktsioone jätkasid loomaõiguslased - kärarikkalt ja tähelepanu tõmbavalt. Nemad sattusid ka pahuksisse Kapoga, kui rahvusvaheline seltskond Rootsis mingi labori väravat liiga tugevalt lükkas ja see katki läks. Kapo hakkas siis nende aktiviste ükshaaval “kohvile kutsuma”. Alustas alaealistest, kes olid üsna šokis, jätkas täisealistega, kellest osa saatsid agentuuri päikeseloojangu suunas ja ei läinud vestlema.

    Mina olin anarhistliku liikumisega liitudes hoidnud hoolsalt oma anonüümsust - mulle kaponaudid helistada ei teadnud. Näitab miks anonüümsus tähtis on. Küll aga üritasid kaponaudid peedistada anarhistliku liikumise üht kõneisikut ja avalikku nägu, võttes ühendust ta ülikooliga, lisaks tulevase tööandja ja doktoritöö sponsoriga (energeetika vallas). Tõnis läks eetrisse ka vastulausega, et “aitab naljast, lõpetage politsei sildi all õigusrikkumine ära”. Sellest koorus pikem ühiskondlik arutelu Kaitsepolitsei rolli üle.

    “Pealtnägija”: Kas teisitimõtlejate järgi nuhkimine on kapo ülereageering või hind meie turvalisuse eest?

    Aktivistid ise nimetavad seda aga ahistamiseks, sest kapo on esitanud kutsed vormis: “Kas tulete ise kohale või tuleme me teile järele.” Kapo on jutul käinud aktiviste ähvardanud, et juhul, kui nad ei tee koostööd, kantakse nad näiteks ökoterroristide nimekirja, mis sulgeks noorte jaoks välispiirid. Endine õiguskantsler Allar Jõks peab kapo toimimist õigusvastaseks. “See on inimese põhiõiguste piiramine,” sõnas Jõks.

    Kaitsepolitsei tähelepanu all on ka teisitimõtleja, anarhist Tõnis Viira, kes käis möödunud suvel Peterburis protestimas G8 tippkohtumise ajal ning tänavu Briti saatkonna ees Iraani sõja vastu. Viira on käinud samuti kapoga vestlemas, kuid ütleb, et tema tegevus on olnud seaduslik ning tal pole midagi karta. Ometi tabas noort meest löök siis, kui sponsorfirma lõpetas talle ootamatult doktorantuuri stipendiumi maksmise. Viira teada on rahavoo lõppemise taga kapo poolt firmale saadetud kiri.

    Sama aasta kevadel avaldasime koos Tiibeti iseseisvuse pooldajatega meelt Hiina saatkonna vastas. Pekingis toimusid parasjagu olümpiamängud, Tiibetis aga oli just lõppenud repressioonilaine.

    Vastu nügimisena Kapole toimus järgmisel kevadel nende maja ees jälgimisühiskonna vastane tegevuspäev, mil kõike elavat maniakaalselt pildistati. (Võin teile öelda, et pildistamine on Kaitsepolitsei töötaja seisukohast äärmiselt häiriv tegevus, täpselt sama ebameeldiv nagu anarhistile.)

    Ei saa välistada, et squat aitas suurendada anarhismi aktsepteeritavust Eesti rokk- ja punkmuusika seltskonnas, kuna asus juhtumisi klubist “Tapper” 200 meetri kaugusel. Bomžide maja (mis oli squati ees) välisvärava juures vestlema sattunud “alternatiivse välimusega noored” võisid mõistmise korral kodukandist mõndagi uut avastada. :) Squatis kasvatati samal ajal ube ja porgandeid ning tegeleti DIY-ga. Käis päikesepaneelide juurde lisamine ja elektrivõrguga liitumiseks võimaluste otsimine - ja see polnud lihtne, isegi energeetikust tuttav ei suutnud aidata. Oli juba võimalik välja arvutada, et talvel oleme hädas.

    (jätkub)



  • (järjejutt jätkub)

    1. aasta viimane oluline poliitikasündmus oli Myanamaris puhkenud “safranrevolutsioon”, mis algas buda munkade protestidest ja lõppes rahvaülestõusuga, mille käigus sõjaväeline valitsus lõpuks võimult eemale suruti (nüüdseks on nad võimule tagasi saanud ja võitlevad uue rahvaülestõusu või koguni kodusõjaga).

    Meie avaldasime ülestõusnute toetuseks meelt, et Riigigkogu neid vähemalt hea sõnaga mainiks, paraku kujunes meeleavaldus hoopis Kapo fotosessiooniks. Ennast Postimehe ajakirjanikuks valetanud superagent “Janek” jäi aga anarhistidele vahele, kuna ka meil olid suurte objektiividega luurajad ja kotkasilmalised agendid - tüüp unustas sõrmest võtta sisekaitseakadeemia sõrmuse ja teda nähti Rahvusraamatukogu sööklast üle tee tööle tagasi minemas. Ajakirjanduses sai selle tõttu natuke nalja.

    1. aastal tabas maailma globaalne finantskriis. USA pinnalt alanud laenuleegid - hüpoteeklaenusid oli väljastatud isikutele, kelle maksevõime ei olnud kindel, selle baasil ehitatud finantsinstrumente ja kasutatud neid asutuste maksevõime tagatisena - tegid peagi planeedile tiiru peale. Euroopa pinnal oli võlakriis oli kõige tõsisem Kreekas, kus tulemusena elavnes ka anarhistlik liikumine. Paraku elavnesid Kreekas ka vägivaldsed neofašistid (Kuldne Koidik) ja omajagu tuli kaasa elada sealsete kolleegide kokkupõrgetele rõvedate natsidega.

    Eestis võttis valitsus vastu ebapopulaarseid otsuseid ja kärpis nii kulutusi kui töötajate õigusi - protestisime seekord juba Toompeal uue töölepingu seaduse vastu.

    Inspiratsioon liikumise järgmiseks etapiks saabus Valgevene anarhistidelt, kes olid eelmisel aastal hõivanud maja ning kaotanud selle kah - ja teinud seiklusest imelühikese dokumentaalfilmi. Üldiselt on majahõivamine pigem Lääne-Euroopa tava ja oli toona veel Hollandis legaalne, Hispaanias aga levinud.

    Punamusta aktivistid proovisid kõigepealt kätt Nõmmel. Omanik hõivas maja tagasi ja pani hoiatavad sildid, mida eirata ei olnud sobilik. Järgmisena proovisime teisel pool teed politsei peakorterist - ja etskae, näkkas. Külalisi Austraaliast ja mitut järgnevat punkbändi võõrustas endine Kalevi vabriku võõrastemaja, mis lammutamise ootel veel püsti seisis ja mille omanik lähedal plaadipoodi (mitte heliplaadi, vaid vannitoaplaadi pooldi) pidas. Algul oli squat illegaalne, peagi aga saatsime omanikule kirja ja rääkisime läbi tasuta kasutamise kuni lammutustööde alguseni.

    Hõivatud maja kasutasid anarhistide ja punkbändide lisaks loomaõiguslased (neil oli parasjagu kibe meeleavalduste aasta ning plakateid oli vaja maalida ning koosolekuid pidada) ning majas elas püsivalt paar-kolm inimest, kohati ka mina. Minu jaoks oli see ainulaadne võimalus üritada rajada päikeseenergial põhinevat autonoomset elektrisüsteemi.

    (jätkub)