Hey guys, what are your thoughts on the existence of extraterrestrial life and the potential involvement of governments in concealing or studying such entities.
Hey guys, what are your thoughts on the existence of extraterrestrial life and the potential involvement of governments in concealing or studying such entities.
I’m agnostic. If you find the statistical probability argument for the existence of aliens salient, then by the same token you should believe that our reality is a simulation. In which case, the existence of aliens once again becomes questionable; the statistical probabilities of an infinite simulated universe are outside the realm of our current knowledge.
edit: See comment below on Nick Bostrom’s Simulation Hypothesis.
I don’t follow how possible aliens = simulation. And what’s the basis for what we experience being defined as simulation or not? Are we in a computer, or everything is a hallucination?
Sorry, I suppose people haven’t heard of the “Simulation hypothesis” in philosophy.
Nick Bostrom argued that, statistically, it is more likely that we live in a simulation than not. Assume that an advanced civilization could build a machine with enormous computing power, sufficient to simulate a human mind and a universe “around” it. It follows that the number of such simulated minds/universes could be near infinite. So the probability of our actually being in a simulated universe dwarfs the probability that our reality is not a simulation.
OK I think I follow now. If one believes the possibility of aliens based on probability, then they should also consider the possibility that the universe is a simulation?
Yes, this is the idea. Although, as another noted, you can argue back and forth on whether Bostrom’s argument holds.
I think that presumes simulating a universe and/or consciousness is even possible. We have no clue either way if it can be done, but we have evidence life exists, at least on Earth, so it is possible for life to exist somewhere else too. I believe aliens are more likely than us living in a simulation
Bostrom’s theory relies on life being real too. If I could rephrase it, his theory is:
1 if humans can simulate a human mind in the future, they will 2 they will probably simulate their ancestors (us) 3 they will probably do it trillions and trillions of times 4 this means that out of trillions of consciousnesses, some are real humans and some are simulations 5 we are either one of the few billion actual living minds or one of the trillions of simulated minds and math says it’s the latter because trillions is more. (He never says trillions, just unspecific words like “countless”)
I think Bostrom is genius but I’ve never found this argument very interesting.
I botched that post, especially the first sentence. I meant to say that it relies on human life being real at some point, either in the present or in the past, and doesn’t really rule out alien life at that point
Well I suppose it depends on your views of consciousness. Some would argue that our consciousness is nothing more than an emergent phenomenon grounded on the electrical impulses of our neurons. Personally, I’m convinced that the phenomenon need not be physical. It should be possible, with enough computing power, to model the same interactions. But I admit that if you reject this possibility, then the simulation hypothesis loses credence.
I think that’s a bit too much of a leap in logic.
The simulation hypothesis requires that an advanced civilisation could simulate what is essentially a Boltzmann brain. It certainly might be something they could do, but we don’t have any proof that’s possible.
Whereas we already know life can pop up on a planet with the right conditions, because we are living proof of it…
While you can argue we don’t know the specific odds of life occuring elsewhere, we know it could occur elsewhere. Thus given to sheer size of the universe, the odds could be just 1 planet in a billion or even a trillion and there’d still be plenty of planets to spare (not necessarily in our galaxy like)
To be fair to Bostrom, his simulation argument outlines three possibilities but doesn’t tell us that the simulation hypothesis (#3) is actual.
Bostrom technically only argues that you can’t coherently reject all three. But, going farther, our computing power has increased dramatically in a miniscule amount of time. If you believe that aliens exist, then it isn’t too hard to suppose that some have vastly greater technological abilities than we have now. In that case, the idea that we’re living in a simulation isn’t something we can easily rule out.
Those possibilities only apply if it is possible to perform that kind of simulation in a finite period of time - I’m not suggesting it isn’t possible, simply that we don’t know if it is.
Using our historical rate of computational progression as the benchmark to suppose this isn’t the best idea either considering Moore’s law has been on the decline for years now as our primary method of improvement (making smaller transistors) has run head first into physical and quantum mechanical issues.
Either way, I find the idea of the existence of extraterrestrials a much more concrete hypothesis given we know for a fact that life can exist on a planet with sufficient conditions because we are life existing on a planet with sufficient conditions.
Even if the odds are tiny, miniscule we know there are at least odds to be had, because otherwise we wouldn’t exist - something we don’t know for sure is true in the case of the simulation hypothesis. As such I believe it to be a leap in logic to compare the two.
I can see where you’re coming from; we know that there is something here (simulation or not) but we don’t know that complex simulations are possible. Bostrom likely considers this objection, but I’ve only heard him describe his view orally. I haven’t read the articles where he defends his view in detail. This isn’t my area, but your point tempts me to go take a look!