Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year.
The ground systems seem like another failed wonder weapon like the western tanks were. They have the range to keep Russian jets from firing current FABs, but like the F-16s there’s a limited number of super complicated machines that have huge logistical footprints and training pipelines by design. When one of the patriot systems goes down that’s a multinational repair effort, when an S-300 fires a missile that’s a large drone target shooting $2.5m at $<50k lancets and one is harder to produce/transport than the other. Whatever one neat trick Ukraine finds, if its much larger enemy can fire 50 lancet drones at that S-300 for the cost of each missile then who will run out of ammo first? If one of those lancets destroys the launcher, which can be replaced faster with a crew that knows how to use it? If the S-300 manages to hide in the perfect fortification the perfect distance away from lancets and FABs, an Iskander has 5x the range of those and a massive warhead at a similar cost to one of the S-300’s missiles.
Ukraine started out strong because they found a way to cheaply destroy expensive things in bomber drones. That’s been countered, replicated, and refined by their enemy to the point that it’s no longer their advantage. Ukraine never figured out a second cheap way to destroy expensive things while Russia did. Ukraine’s answer to that is throwing expensive things it can’t afford or repair domestically at the cheap things which cause massive attrition. Their drone attacks into Russia are symbolically punching a bear as if it’s one punch away from death and can’t reciprocate.
Ground based air defense will have to adapt too. Since Russia has air superiority we’ll probably not see the systems that could efficiently counter the drones and FABs they are dropping from ridiculous distances with pretty alright accuracy.
It will have to adapt, but if I’m drowning in the ocean I also have to adapt by growing gills. Can I do that before I drown is the question. Personally I think I could because I’m smart enough. Can Ukraine adapt its complex AA systems to a very cheap counter in time to not be overwhelmed by that cheap weapon is the question that has to be asked. The cheaper thing they’re fighting will only become cheaper and better with time while they have to invent the cheaper better missile as they’re firing it to save the launcher. To me it seems like they’re back to hunter-killer teams with MANPADs, which they already have and which we already see the full capability of.
Pretty sure most intercepts on either side have been ground level defenses - S-200, S-300, BUK, etc
The ground systems seem like another failed wonder weapon like the western tanks were. They have the range to keep Russian jets from firing current FABs, but like the F-16s there’s a limited number of super complicated machines that have huge logistical footprints and training pipelines by design. When one of the patriot systems goes down that’s a multinational repair effort, when an S-300 fires a missile that’s a large drone target shooting $2.5m at $<50k lancets and one is harder to produce/transport than the other. Whatever one neat trick Ukraine finds, if its much larger enemy can fire 50 lancet drones at that S-300 for the cost of each missile then who will run out of ammo first? If one of those lancets destroys the launcher, which can be replaced faster with a crew that knows how to use it? If the S-300 manages to hide in the perfect fortification the perfect distance away from lancets and FABs, an Iskander has 5x the range of those and a massive warhead at a similar cost to one of the S-300’s missiles.
Ukraine started out strong because they found a way to cheaply destroy expensive things in bomber drones. That’s been countered, replicated, and refined by their enemy to the point that it’s no longer their advantage. Ukraine never figured out a second cheap way to destroy expensive things while Russia did. Ukraine’s answer to that is throwing expensive things it can’t afford or repair domestically at the cheap things which cause massive attrition. Their drone attacks into Russia are symbolically punching a bear as if it’s one punch away from death and can’t reciprocate.
Ground based air defense will have to adapt too. Since Russia has air superiority we’ll probably not see the systems that could efficiently counter the drones and FABs they are dropping from ridiculous distances with pretty alright accuracy.
It will have to adapt, but if I’m drowning in the ocean I also have to adapt by growing gills. Can I do that before I drown is the question. Personally I think I could because I’m smart enough. Can Ukraine adapt its complex AA systems to a very cheap counter in time to not be overwhelmed by that cheap weapon is the question that has to be asked. The cheaper thing they’re fighting will only become cheaper and better with time while they have to invent the cheaper better missile as they’re firing it to save the launcher. To me it seems like they’re back to hunter-killer teams with MANPADs, which they already have and which we already see the full capability of.