If you are white collar then it’s going to “disrupt” your field.
I work in tech. I got laid off last year. I wasn’t at Alphabet or Amazon or anything. Much smaller company. But AI “optimization” has ravaged the tech industry and not just programmers. Admins, database specialists, network specialists, developers, you name it. Our job market is absolutely fucked.
In my county, a major metro area in the US (like, top 10) craigslist used to be the place to get real job postings. If it wasn’t a recruiter then your odds of getting a callback from a job posting there is pretty high. There are plenty of postings for other fields like mechanics and tradesmen and so on. For the few tech categories: nothing in the last month. Zero postings. Not even recruiter ads. Literally nothing. It’s a wasteland.
I’ve been told to “go back to school.” I’ll be 41 soon. I’m still paying off my computer science degree. It’s worthless. What else should I go for? Accounting? HR? These are going to be taken by AI, too. Will it be a mistake? Sure. They don’t care. They’ll do it anyways.
When I got my degree my wife and I were homeless. We just got back out of the hole in the last 10 years. I was finally building savings. It’ll be gone in 60 days. She was laid off on Friday. Her industry is in property finance. Another gutted industry. She has to change industries, too.
What is to be done?
I’m still trying to understand how actually replacing people with AI is supposed to work, because the quality of the outputs is still essentially trash. I do understand that in the short term capital prefers to swing its dick around to prove a point, and maybe that’s all there is to it. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that AI hype is being used to cover for a very real economic slowdown that is actually driving the lack of job prospects and layoffs. Maybe capital is just hoping that AIs can do a good enough job to keep them floating until the recession is over.
This post by Ed Zitron is pretty cogent to me - AI is the last next big thing for tech in its desperate search for continued hyper growth. Tech is essentially cooked, at this point - or at least, the familiar Silicon Valley of the last 10 years.
There are plenty of comparisons of Nvidia’s valuation to that of Cisco during the dotcom boom. I remain convinced that some of the biggest tech names of the last decade are going to disappear over the next decade (Uber, DoorDash, et al). We’re in a very transitional time and things are going to change drastically, imo
honestly smartphones were the last next big thing, everything since 2008 has been desperate flailing. apps got better sure because of course they would but tech hasnt been able to recapture that.
as with all things capital bled this tech dry for profits and is now grasping at straws trying to make infinite exponential growth from finite, incremental technological advancements.
And then there is solar panels and spaceflight.
But after that, yeah, probably that’s the end of it.
I mean it’s barely a cover. People were predicting a slowdown in white collar jobs soon in spring of 2022. It was a weird time because the job market was still hot, but the covid era demand that created a lot of tech jobs clearly receded. Layoffs started like that fall. I remember someone leaving my company for amazon and amazon axed the entire division like a week later. Like I think people forget fear of a recession, one disproportionately hitting white collar workers, and tech layoffs predate even chatgpt 3.
Edit: every management update we received that year was about a recession, potential layoffs, and becase I worked in marketing how to deal with client expectations because almost every one of them had dropping revenues relative to 2020 and 2021.
Well, it’s two fold.
Most jobs don’t actually need a super highly technical human being for all the tasks they need to perform. So much of IT and tech work is tedium and monotonous. Same shit every day. So you don’t need super highly advanced AI to do it. Just something that is good enough. Sadly, in my experience the average tech worker isn’t super bright anyways. I hate to sound ableist but it’s the truth. They get the job done and deserve a good livable wage but they aren’t inventing the new faster wireless charger… they are struggling to get a router setup only slightly less than your average zoomer at home. If they are lucky they have a step by step guide someone else wrote that has been revised through trial and error by other techs.
For the rest of it, yeah the AI will make mistakes and be bad. But companies will still keep a senior tech on salary to oversee this and also just grin and bear it when it does go haywire. If it doesn’t cost them more money than what they made by the layoffs then it was a worthy sacrifice. Capitalist “innovation” doesn’t have to be good it just has to be good enough.
Here’s my theory, AI will work well enough, just long enough, that companies will get used to not having to pay people. When shit starts breaking to the point they realize AI doesn’t really work, they’ll be too kush with their high stock prices and will be desperate to not go back and so will refuse to hire back people who can fix and and let the whole thing burn rather than concede they actually need skilled people. By then their pedophile fallout bunker will be done and they’ll all just fly to New Zealand and leave us to die.
Its gotta be some evil delulu shit. AI is just not that good. There could be some improvements still, but its way to early to be rationally betting on it like this. I’m sure they are eager to retaliate against unionization and shit. Blame it on the recession, get bailed out, and hire us back at way lower salaries. Though idk where the US is going to get that money this time around.