What do you think the situation would be if the US Civil War ended in a stalemate? Either side drove the other to Long Island, except in this case Long Island controls all your sea access. (If they were both adamant on taking over the other and neither side signed a peace treaty.) That’s what this is, it’s a civil war that never ended. I’m going to leave the rest of that one alone, but you should explore your line of thinking on it.
What do you think the situation would be if the US Civil War ended in a stalemate? Either side drove the other to Long Island, except in this case Long Island controls all your sea access. (If they were both adamant on taking over the other and neither side signed a peace treaty.) That’s what this is, it’s a civil war that never ended. I’m going to leave the rest of that one alone, but you should explore your line of thinking on it.