This is the most comprehensive reporting on Chinese emissions released regularly. There is still an expectation/possibility that China’s emissions will be lower than 2023, and then a near certainty that the peak will be 2023 or 2024.

Some notes:

China is only committed to peaking by 2030. Ministry doesn’t view an early peak as a new goal.

7.8% electricity demand growth in Q3 was huge, and so slight emission increase from power sector. Oil (EVs and LNG truck success), Steel and Cement (construction downturn) emissions were down to make overall emissions flat.

A worrying national/energy security measure is China is expanding its ability to make oil and gas chemicals from coal instead.