So recently I’ve been seeing the trend where Android OEMs such as Google, Samsung, etc. have been extending their software release times up to like five, six, and seven years after device release. Clearly, phone hardware has gotten to the point where it can support software for that long, and computers have been in that stage for a very long time. From what I can tell, the only OEM that does this currently might be Fairphone.
Edit: The battery is the thing that goes the fastest so manufacturers could just offer new batteries and that would solve a lot of the problem.
I very seriously doubt it would become entirely impossible because if it became entirely impossible on any big brand name to do so then somebody would launch a brand that specifically allowed for that. Fairphone is somewhat that way already.
As the total number user of alternative phone OS shrinks, the development of those OS becomes less and less viable. But yes, I would see phones with mid tier specs from 3 years ago charging flagship prices to fill that the spot before it becomes entirely non-viable. I think google does need there to be the appearance of competition so they don’t get hit with monopoly lawsuits, but it only needs to exist, other than that they want it as fringe and clunky as possible and I think that’s where we’re headed.
With things like GrapheneOS its literally never been easier. Plug your phone into the computer, go to their website, and press a couple of buttons and read a couple of instructions. And you now have an alternative operating system on your phone.
Edit: hell, simplifiedprivacy.com will literally do it for you and send you the device.