Trump promised voters tariffs are a panacea for the economy, but Walmart finance chief John David Rainey warned they will be inflationary for customers.
But the question is, will American manufacturing make up for the costs? Or, will American manufacturing just raise their prices to match the tariffs and lump the profits into their executive bonuses. They deserve it after all for being smart enough to raise prices.
American manufacturing CAN’T, it would take years, decades honestly, to get back the capacity to make all the crap we’ve outsourced to other countries.
And this is the absolute brain rot fantasy of tariffs that I keep explaining to these idiots, and keep getting blank stares or awkward silences.
Tariffs are 100% punitive, without a domestic/alternative sourcing strategy. They can work long term to reduce a foreign nation’s competitive advantage in an industry while allowing a domestic industry space to exist, but that only works if there’s a domestic industry that already exists (at enough scale to meet demand) or a long term government program to nurture and build those industries - education/vocation training, regulatory concerns, infrastructure development, raw materials availability, etc
Tariffs Chinese steel/electronics/machine tools/etc into oblivion? Either buy the imported at a high price, or buy the domestic at a slightly less high price - but the cost is always carried by the consumer no matter what.
And then there’s the ensuing trade war that always happens, with the countries retaliating with their own tariffs to the US. Tariffs are a lose-lose scenario, just like they were in 2019.
IMO that’s the height of economic policy stupidity because if/when Taiwan gets invaded, China will own nearly all semiconductor manufacturing outside of the highest end fab houses such as Intel or GlobalFoundries. The future of domestic manufacturing is high tech or specialty like Corning glassworks or L3-Harris, even car manufacturers get beat out by imports with our current tariff structure
This is largely accurate unfortunately.
A good example is Apple. They tried to make a high-end desktop computer manufactured in the US. To do this they needed a specific type of screw. In the area near their factory, they only found one machine shop that could make the screw and they could guarantee an output of 50 screws per day after a 3 week lead time to tool up. And that was the final offer.
When they finally moved to China, they submitted the same request. Multiple vendors appeared offering thousands of screws per day and if they wanted to place a bigger order the company would set up a new factory just to produce those screws and could output tens or hundreds of thousands per day depending on requirements.
Another example is the iPhone and Gorilla Glass.
There were a few Chinese companies in the running to manufacture the glass panel that would go on top of the phone. The one that got the contract, in anticipation of getting the contract, had already purchased the machine to form the glass and had samples ready for inspection at the contract signing.
We have allowed our business climate to become so bogged down in red tape and liability and lawyers and insurance, that most American companies are simply unable to execute at the same speed as China when it comes to manufacturing.
I would absolutely love to get more manufacturing back in the US. But the process of outsourcing is not going to get unwound overnight. It took two decades to move everything to China, even if the whole country agreed that was a mistake it would take another two decades to bring it back.
Because as the Apple screws demonstrate, it’s not just about the factory that produces the widget. It’s about everything that goes into that factory, the companies that make the parts and the screws and the plastic. When you deal with China, they are all right there and they are all ready to go. Same can’t be said for the US.
An awful lot of regulations are written in blood. I am not suggesting we relax any of them.
I’m talking about the endless supply of permits and forms and local government licenses and that sort of thing. There is an awful lot of regulation that does absolutely nothing to increase safety, it’s just bureaucracy. We could get rid of all that without impacting safety.
While youre correct, it’s worth noting that alot of the reason China can outmanufacture us is the lack of those sane regulations. Nets for suicidal factory kids and all that. Thing is, the tarrifs also arent just being applied to slave wage countries, but the entire world basically
If some other countries are any indication, not only will they raise the prices but they will raise it way more than the tariffs and just blame on tariffs and with time people will just think that is the way it is. “X cost 3 times as other countries? That is because the tariffs” no mind that the tariffs is like 50% and not 300%. Like they already do with gas prices. Gas go up immediately when oil prices rise but only goes down, if ever, for new stock.
During his first term Trump put a tariffs on Washing Machines. The price of imported washing machines went up. The price of domestically manufactured washing machines was also raised. Even the price of dryers — which didn’t have a tariff — went up on both imported and domestically manufactured appliances.
I have yet to see an economist that thinks Trumps tariff plans will benefit the working class.
Those prices entirely rebounded by the end of 2019. Thats how tariffs work. It became more expensive to import, companies slowly replaced imports with cheaper local goods, the cost settles.
There are surely instances where it didnt rebound entirely but thats not one of them.
That doesn’t change that putting the tariff in place was a stupid idea that didn’t help anyone. Rebounding after the removal of the tariff doesn’t undo the damage done while it was in place.
And even if they did, they still did more damage to everyone else than any small group of people they may have helped. Which is still reason enough to say that it didn’t help anyone, because, as a group, the country was worse off with them in place.
But the question is, will American manufacturing make up for the costs? Or, will American manufacturing just raise their prices to match the tariffs and lump the profits into their executive bonuses. They deserve it after all for being smart enough to raise prices.
American manufacturing CAN’T, it would take years, decades honestly, to get back the capacity to make all the crap we’ve outsourced to other countries.
And this is the absolute brain rot fantasy of tariffs that I keep explaining to these idiots, and keep getting blank stares or awkward silences.
Tariffs are 100% punitive, without a domestic/alternative sourcing strategy. They can work long term to reduce a foreign nation’s competitive advantage in an industry while allowing a domestic industry space to exist, but that only works if there’s a domestic industry that already exists (at enough scale to meet demand) or a long term government program to nurture and build those industries - education/vocation training, regulatory concerns, infrastructure development, raw materials availability, etc
Tariffs Chinese steel/electronics/machine tools/etc into oblivion? Either buy the imported at a high price, or buy the domestic at a slightly less high price - but the cost is always carried by the consumer no matter what.
And then there’s the ensuing trade war that always happens, with the countries retaliating with their own tariffs to the US. Tariffs are a lose-lose scenario, just like they were in 2019.
And they want to kill the CHIPS act, which was going to build some of that local supply.
IMO that’s the height of economic policy stupidity because if/when Taiwan gets invaded, China will own nearly all semiconductor manufacturing outside of the highest end fab houses such as Intel or GlobalFoundries. The future of domestic manufacturing is high tech or specialty like Corning glassworks or L3-Harris, even car manufacturers get beat out by imports with our current tariff structure
More like generations IMO
And beyond that, it will incentivize further automation rather than more blue collar jobs.
This is largely accurate unfortunately. A good example is Apple. They tried to make a high-end desktop computer manufactured in the US. To do this they needed a specific type of screw. In the area near their factory, they only found one machine shop that could make the screw and they could guarantee an output of 50 screws per day after a 3 week lead time to tool up. And that was the final offer.
When they finally moved to China, they submitted the same request. Multiple vendors appeared offering thousands of screws per day and if they wanted to place a bigger order the company would set up a new factory just to produce those screws and could output tens or hundreds of thousands per day depending on requirements.
Another example is the iPhone and Gorilla Glass. There were a few Chinese companies in the running to manufacture the glass panel that would go on top of the phone. The one that got the contract, in anticipation of getting the contract, had already purchased the machine to form the glass and had samples ready for inspection at the contract signing.
We have allowed our business climate to become so bogged down in red tape and liability and lawyers and insurance, that most American companies are simply unable to execute at the same speed as China when it comes to manufacturing.
I would absolutely love to get more manufacturing back in the US. But the process of outsourcing is not going to get unwound overnight. It took two decades to move everything to China, even if the whole country agreed that was a mistake it would take another two decades to bring it back. Because as the Apple screws demonstrate, it’s not just about the factory that produces the widget. It’s about everything that goes into that factory, the companies that make the parts and the screws and the plastic. When you deal with China, they are all right there and they are all ready to go. Same can’t be said for the US.
I was sorta on board until you blamed regulations as a reason businesses can’t have manufacturering I. The US.
Regulations are written in blood. Stop pretending like a living wage and no slave labor is a bad tbi g inhibiting production.
Tarrif the snot out of the slave wage countries.
An awful lot of regulations are written in blood. I am not suggesting we relax any of them. I’m talking about the endless supply of permits and forms and local government licenses and that sort of thing. There is an awful lot of regulation that does absolutely nothing to increase safety, it’s just bureaucracy. We could get rid of all that without impacting safety.
Unfortunately, the United States is also a slave country within it’s prison system.
Want a slave? Just trump up some nebulous charges about them, so to speak. Profit.
While youre correct, it’s worth noting that alot of the reason China can outmanufacture us is the lack of those sane regulations. Nets for suicidal factory kids and all that. Thing is, the tarrifs also arent just being applied to slave wage countries, but the entire world basically
If some other countries are any indication, not only will they raise the prices but they will raise it way more than the tariffs and just blame on tariffs and with time people will just think that is the way it is. “X cost 3 times as other countries? That is because the tariffs” no mind that the tariffs is like 50% and not 300%. Like they already do with gas prices. Gas go up immediately when oil prices rise but only goes down, if ever, for new stock.
During his first term Trump put a tariffs on Washing Machines. The price of imported washing machines went up. The price of domestically manufactured washing machines was also raised. Even the price of dryers — which didn’t have a tariff — went up on both imported and domestically manufactured appliances.
I have yet to see an economist that thinks Trumps tariff plans will benefit the working class.
Those prices entirely rebounded by the end of 2019. Thats how tariffs work. It became more expensive to import, companies slowly replaced imports with cheaper local goods, the cost settles.
There are surely instances where it didnt rebound entirely but thats not one of them.
That doesn’t change that putting the tariff in place was a stupid idea that didn’t help anyone. Rebounding after the removal of the tariff doesn’t undo the damage done while it was in place.
Didnt help anyone? You can’t think of a single way it might have helped?
Overall, no, I do not believe they helped anyone.
And even if they did, they still did more damage to everyone else than any small group of people they may have helped. Which is still reason enough to say that it didn’t help anyone, because, as a group, the country was worse off with them in place.
Am I one of the people damaged by higher washing machine prices? How would I know?
That is exactly what US steel did in response to the steel tariffs back in Trump round one.
I think we know
I think you guys know.
I don’t think that guy over there knows.
I think we all know except for him too!
Haha number go up again
Uff the country that loves to buy temu crap is forced to buy american crap