It’s not just consumer spending that influences inflation,/deflation but also institutional spending. The consumer price index is a lagging indicator. Decreases in institutional spending precede unemployment and the eventual reduced demand for consumer goods and services. And increases in the fed rate (and/or other forces which cause the cost of borrowing money for institutions/investors to rise) generally precede that.
Institutional spending will decrease as credit markets seize up. If deflation is predictable at, say, 1-2%, then it shouldn’t be a factor since credit would account for that.
It’s not just consumer spending that influences inflation,/deflation but also institutional spending. The consumer price index is a lagging indicator. Decreases in institutional spending precede unemployment and the eventual reduced demand for consumer goods and services. And increases in the fed rate (and/or other forces which cause the cost of borrowing money for institutions/investors to rise) generally precede that.
Institutional spending will decrease as credit markets seize up. If deflation is predictable at, say, 1-2%, then it shouldn’t be a factor since credit would account for that.