In audio intercepts from the front lines in Ukraine, Russian soldiers speak in shorthand of 200s to mean dead, 300s to mean wounded. The urge to flee has become common enough that they also talk of 500s — people who refuse to fight.
As the war grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, as suggested in secret recordings obtained by The Associated Press of Russian soldiers calling home from the battlefields of the Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine.
The calls offer a rare glimpse of the war as it looked through Russian eyes — a point of view that seldom makes its way into Western media, largely because Russia has made it a crime to speak honestly about the conflict in Ukraine. They also show clearly how the war has progressed, from the professional soldiers who initially powered Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion to men from all walks of life compelled to serve in grueling conditions.
“There’s no f------ ‘dying the death of the brave’ here,” one soldier told his brother from the front in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. “You just die like a f------ earthworm.”
I remember reading when the war first started that Russia has the numbers to continually onslaught for a long time. If they’re pulling prisoners, the old and young, etc., is that really true anymore?
It’s very ducking complicated, but I’ll do my best to give you a sensible answer. I live in Russia and while I’m no journalist or expert, maybe I have something worthwhile to say for an insight.
We do have the numbers, period - there’s money in killing our neighbors, there’s some sort of twisted fate or purpose that always emerges during this kind of times, and there’s people willing to do this kind of stuff for the kind of money or purpose offered. There’s also, well, just people of various backgrounds, skills, and capabilites to forcefully throw into the war effort, but the most important thing is that it’s not just a number game - like, it’s not a dead-simple RTS game where you select some units and magically convert them into equally capable combatants over a set period of time to go and win with some tactics.
Despite the somewhat prevalent opinion, this is not a popular war, it’s not supported or sacred or anything - Russia wouldn’t see so many people fleeing and imprisoned otherwise. Wouldn’t have to forcefully mobilise anyone either.
There’s enough people in the country that the government can try and throw at the wall of this war and see if they stick and magically do something, but that doesn’t guarantee any success of its own and has massive risks that even the current old men aren’t willing to take.
As a bonus, any good dictator loves a war, especially a war that’s prolonged, that’s convenient excuse for anything - establish the right kind of info, punish anyone who disagrees, make people praise you for the very little they may get because things could always be worse, make the war the excuse, tell people it’s good and creates work places and gives them purposes, and so and so forth. I don’t belive Putin wants an end to this war - he’d much rather let it help him sit tighter on his blood-drenched throne, and make Ukraine suffer for not playing along with his egomaniac ambitions; under Putin, the war dies with him, not a minute earlier.
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As another Russian, I can confirm that.
Also, I’d add that, while Russia is full of men, and technically the manpower is close to infinite, the equipment is a whole another story.
Government organized a lot of volunteer services to allow civilians to support the effort by donating clothing, collecting money to buy armor and even guns.
Many on the frontlines are constantly talking about critical lack of basic supplies, and drafting any more people is just sending them to sure death without any effect on the actual military effort the Russian government pursues. This is probably one of the core reasons Russia doesn’t escalate the conflict any more.
And yes - war is not popular here, but sadly, that’s something we mostly have to share quietly on our kitchens.
That, too. Good points, thanks.
The people that got mobilised late September last year already lead to many reports of extremely poor and lacking equipment, and news like that usually don’t break out of something as gated and hostile to any outside world communications as the Russian army.
Prigozhin and his Wager group got increasingly mad because of that, too, among other things, as they weren’t pumped full of money and best gear the Russian government could muster. They said they were getting g ripped off and such, but what really happened is they got down to the same tier gear as everyone else (maybe higher, still), and that was THAT infuriating to them.
How do Russians against the war rationalize the actions of the country? Is there a sense Putin is catering to the will of capitalist oligarchs who want access to the gas reserves in Western Ukraine, or at least want to avoid an EU or NATO-aligned Ukraine from cutting off their access to these resources? Or is this a war based solely on one man’s ego? My understanding is the Putin ego is a careful balancing act that keeps him useful for the capital interests with the propaganda around him being more of a postmodern type crafting of his brand and the country’s image.
NOTE: I turned to a lot of ranting after 2nd paragraph, so don’t read anything past that if you’re only interested in learning what we, the anti-war Russians, think.
I have only ever heard the former from - for the lack of a better word - the westerners; more specifically, I’ve only ever heard that from non-European westerners, as every German, French, Pole, etc. only ever had a different idea of why the war ever happened, but nothing about resources or any other nonsense like that. I’ll try to respond as best as I can, and some things may look like I’m excusing myself or others, so please bear in mind that it’s just my attempts to explain some of the most bizarre things that people may see coming from Russia in these times.
The anti-war Russians either don’t rationalize it all, mock the initial talking points (“No NATO expansion!”), or talk about Putin’s ego and his long history with Ukraine. I’m in the latter camp: I believe that Putin wanted to have Ukraine in his pocket the same way he has Belarus right now, but he failed multiple times, which ultimately led to the Euromaidan protests; at that point he just got pissed I guess and tried to bruteforce some influence into Ukraine or something, first annexing Crimea (overtly), then sending various agents and actors to the Southeast of Ukraine (covertly at first), and eventually starting a full-blown campaign hoping for a quick win and patriotic points akin to Crimea… we all know it failed, and it’s good, but I still doubt it ever could have an effect that is in any way similar to the Crimea annexation because Putin managed to sell it as the will of the people over there, having enough material to force the “not a shot” narrative of the peaceful annexation; I just think that even if Putin conquered and held the entirety of Ukraine in 3 days or less, the way things happened already was covered in blood, and that’s not very popular, neither here, nor anywhere else; then there simply was more blood and more suffering that was much more prominent and noticeable to the people living in Russia because, well, it’s Ukraine of all places, the amount of all kinds of relationships meant that none of the killings and pain could ever be hidden or downplayed. I really doubt Putin ever wanted it take any longer than a couple of weeks, but oh well, here’s what 20+ years of rampant kleptocracy gets you, I guess.
One could argue there’s always been support for the war effort and the anti-Ukrainian sentiment, but all of that is artificial first and foremost, and then fueled by massive amounts of copium that a lot of people need to stay at least somewhat sane. I should know because following my ever-growing discontent with my country (both its people and the government), I’ve mentally emigrated years ago, mostly talking to people living outside Russia and solely in English, and developed very humanistic, leftist views over that time as well as gaining a massive base of various resources to get news from all around the world with the least amount of (one-sided) propaganda - so when the war started and I saw what my government was doing, I could not believe any of that shit. It honestly felt like a nightmare that was not surprising because I knew what kind of people made up my government on all of its levels, but still a gut-turning nightmare. And that was me, someone who had very little ties to the country despite living there and basically hoping to move out one day - I can’t even begin to imagine what it would be like to happen to be more of a patriot on 24 February 2022 and later; that’s way too rapid and insane and brutal to believe and properly accept, and so many people - a lot of which had vigorously complained about Russia and its government before the war, by the way - developed a coping mechanism that just happens to look very fucking wrong.
Many fell victim to very powerful and long-running propaganda, which is a very serious and difficult problem to tackle on any level, be it individual or collective; the people who blame them are very lucky to not have witnessed this kind of shit first-hand, and they simply don’t understand what it is - even Orwell would’ve shat himself had he had the chance to live with it side-by-side. It’s a very complicated and difficult issue, and we’re in deep.
As for the anti-war Russians, I don’t even think anybody rationalizes it anymore. Thankfully, we’ve seen many speakers talking about the real reasons for the war (2nd paragraph, it all basically being an ego trip and an attempt to gather some political points in lieu of having done anything worthwhile at all in over 20 years), so I guess that’s the stance most of us take now. Funnily enough, I tried to be a bit more mentally present in Russia after the war started, like trying to find some Russian websites and communities online and stuff to stay more up-to-date and, well, try and make some influence, but recently I’ve come to the same conclusion again that I just can’t stand many of my fellow countrypeople, especially online because they’re either more likely to show some of their not-so-sociable faces or just hold some disgusting views in general; by the time I got capable of leaving, I realized that I can’t because, despite all the shit, I now have people that I care about over here and can neither leave (because I highly doubt I’d be able to get them into crypto to financially help anyone if need be, or will face massive issues if I have to visit) nor take them with me (because they won’t move).
On top of all that, I just don’t know what to expect from the future - not my future, but just the future in general. I’m going to try my best to aid the anti-Putin effort for the March 2024 elections, but I don’t know if that’s going to be any success. I’m not feeling too good about the right-wing sentiment gaining traction all over the world again. I’m certainly not happy about the climate situation and the big players just not caring about shit other than their profits. Real estate is not even worth talking about.
It’s all so tiresome and weird.
They’ve been pulling undesirables in hopes of wearing down Ukraine with them, a general mobilization of the population has not happened yet I believe.
It’s the ol’ meat avalanche tactic once again, and Russia’s leadership is once again forgetting that logistics and hardware win wars… and they’re quickly running on fumes…