Cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/18686329 (the first OPSEC community on Lemmy, feel free to join us)

Guide to Determining Your Threat Model

Creating a solid threat model is an essential step in improving your operations security (OPSEC). It helps you identify potential threats, assess their impact, and prioritize your defenses. Here’s a step-by-step guide to help you develop your own threat model.


1. Define Your Assets

First, list the things you want to protect. These might include:

  • Personal Information: Name, address, phone number, Social Security number, etc.
  • Financial Information: Bank account details, credit card numbers, financial records.
  • Digital Assets: Emails, social media accounts, documents, photos.
  • Physical Assets: Home, devices (computers, smartphones, etc.).

2. Identify Potential Threats

Next, think about who or what could pose a threat to your assets. Possible threats include:

  • Hackers: Individuals or groups looking to steal data or money.
  • Government Agencies: Law enforcement or intelligence agencies conducting surveillance.
  • Corporations: Companies collecting data for marketing or other purposes.
  • Insiders: Employees or contractors who might misuse their access.
  • Physical Threats: Burglars or thieves aiming to physically access your assets.

3. Assess Your Vulnerabilities

Identify weaknesses that these threats could exploit. Consider:

  • Technical Vulnerabilities: Unpatched software, weak passwords, outdated systems.
  • Behavioral Vulnerabilities: Poor security habits, lack of awareness.
  • Physical Vulnerabilities: Insecure physical locations, lack of physical security measures.

4. Determine the Potential Impact

Think about the consequences if your assets were compromised. Ask yourself:

  • How critical is the asset?
  • What would happen if it were accessed, stolen, or damaged?
  • Could compromising this asset lead to further vulnerabilities?

5. Prioritize Your Risks

Based on your assessment, rank your risks by considering:

  • Likelihood: How probable is it that a specific threat will exploit a particular vulnerability?
  • Impact: How severe would the consequences be if the threat succeeded?

6. Develop Mitigation Strategies

Create a plan to address the most critical risks. Strategies might include:

  • Technical Measures:

    • Use strong, unique passwords and enable two-factor authentication.
    • Keep your software and systems up to date with the latest security patches.
    • Use encryption to protect sensitive data.
  • Behavioral Measures:

    • Be cautious with sharing personal information online.
    • Stay informed about common scams and phishing tactics.
    • Regularly review your privacy settings on social media and other platforms.
  • Physical Measures:

    • Secure your devices with locks and use physical security measures for your home or office.
    • Store sensitive documents in a safe place.
    • Be mindful of your surroundings and use privacy screens in public places.

7. Continuously Review and Update

Your threat model isn’t a one-time project. Review and update it regularly as your situation changes or new threats emerge.


Example Threat Model

  1. Assets:

    • Personal Information (e.g., SSN, address)
    • Financial Information (e.g., bank accounts)
    • Digital Assets (e.g., emails, social media)
    • Physical Assets (e.g., laptop, phone)
  2. Threats:

    • Hackers (e.g., phishing attacks)
    • Government Agencies (e.g., surveillance)
    • Corporations (e.g., data collection)
    • Insiders (e.g., disgruntled employees)
    • Physical Threats (e.g., theft)
  3. Vulnerabilities:

    • Weak passwords
    • Outdated software
    • Sharing too much information online
    • Insecure physical locations
  4. Potential Impact:

    • Identity theft
    • Financial loss
    • Loss of privacy
    • Compromise of additional accounts
  5. Prioritize Risks:

    • High Likelihood/High Impact: Weak passwords leading to account compromise.
    • Low Likelihood/High Impact: Government surveillance leading to loss of privacy.
  6. Mitigation Strategies:

    • Use a password manager and enable two-factor authentication.
    • Regularly update all software and devices.
    • Limit the amount of personal information shared online.
    • Use a home security system and lock devices.
  • TranquilTurbulence
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    6 months ago

    A few months ago, I did a similar assessment where I categorized potential threats in the following manner.

    Category 1 - financial impact

    A criminal might gain access to my account, steal my money or make online purchases in my name. The impact is potentially great, but the probability is low. Overall risk is medium. Using good online practices helps mitigate the risk.

    Category 2 - social impact

    I may carelessly share personal information online and coworkers, friends or family may find out something they aren’t supposed to. The impact is medium to high, but the probability is very low. Overall risk is low. Not sharing personal information online helps mitigate the risk. Besides, I don’t even use Facebook, Xitter and other modern online trash. I do share stuff on Lemmy, but I try to keep my personal details out of it. Also, I don’t use my real name here, so a random family members probably aren’t going to stumble upon this account without first putting in some serious snooping effort.

    Category 3 - matters of principle

    Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and all the other large companies are constantly trying to learn as much as possible. The potential harm is low, but the probability is very high. Overall risk is still low. I’m using many techniques to limit the amount of information professional snoopers might get their hands on.

    So, category 1 is obviously the highest priority, and that’s where I put most of my effort. Category 3 is nice to have, but screwing up here isn’t going the be the end of the world. If you want to know more about the actual mitigation methods, don’t be afraid to ask.