There’s a actually a super interesting explanation (and time will tell how accurate that explanation is) regulations from 2020 limited how much sulfur dioxide ships could emit and it turns out the sulfur dioxide was actually creating a slight cooling effect, so now we’re experiencing the full brunt of our existing emissions as the world climate rubber bands to where it would have been if ships weren’t spewing toxic sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. So presumably this recent trend will stabilize at some point and we’ll have our new normal
This is also why geoengineering is so extremely risky. If you ever stop for any reason the climate will rubberband to where it should have been rapidly
But doesn’t this mean that geoengineering is also effective at giving us extra time? We’d start using safer gases that have the same cooling effect while we try and go carbon negative worldwide
Geo-engineering is a rabbit hole we do not want to dive into. We have the ability and knowledge to fight climate change right now, the only thing we don’t have is the political willpower. Geo-engineering is a distraction, please don’t give it the time of day.
doesn’t this mean that geoengineering is also effective at giving us extra time?
I have zero faith in governments nor societal leaders actually maintaining any geoengineering efforts consistently which is what would be required. Any time geoengineering buys would be squandered by inaction. I do not expect any significant action to occur until it immediately threatens businesses and governments in ways that cannot be ignored by even the most head-in-the-sand deniers
If we geoengineer, it will be half-assed, and the moment the scope shrinks (as funding naturally grows and shrinks depending on who’s setting budgets for administrations) every bit of climate change effect that we held off will come crashing down far more rapidly than the slow crawl we’ve been experiencing for the past century or so
We’d start using safer gases that have the same cooling effect
If I, as a rando on the internet we’re to guess, the most cost effective tactic would be very large pumps firing ocean water into the air either to evaporate naturally or artificially evaporated to create more clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight and artificially creating more would slow ocean warning, and therefore slow global climate change. I’m certain the salt and other crap in the water would have difficult to predict downstream effects, at best creating more rain, at worst salting the rainforests
I don’t think the issue is whether it’s effective in isolation (clearly we can alter the environment), it’s the fact that it’s likely to be used as a shitty band aid to continue emitting carbon and it’s likely to have unforseen consequences. We need to stop burning fossil fuels, all of them, immediately.
But doesn’t this mean that geoengineering is also effective at giving us extra time? We’d start using safer gases that have the same cooling effect while we try and go carbon negative worldwide
Personally, I think that’d actually have an overall negative effect. Governments and corporations desperately don’t want to do anything about climate change, and giving them more time with cooler temperatures will (my opinion) just allow the world to further delay doing anything about it, allowing them to bake in even worse temps if they ever had to stop geoengineering for whatever reason.
This is a really morbid take, but all these big heatwaves, radical weather, and rise in weather related deaths cannot be ignored, and that’s unfortunately damn useful. It makes it harder to be a climate denier/skeptic, makes people more angry when nothing is being done about curbing emissions (hopefully leading to more climate protests), and really forces society to place a skeptical eye at all the new fossil fuels being brought online around the world, all because they can personally feel it.
If it could be made to be business as usual, I think we’d see the “Gosh darn it guys, we reaaaallly should do something about all this. Eventually.” mentality just continue until it once again becomes too hot physically to ignore.
It’s less terrifying than the initial graph since it at least suggests this is a temporary period of rapid ocean warning while the climate rapidly reaches where it should have been. I’m (overly-)hopeful that the brief period of rapid climate change will finally spur more meaningful action by governments, but probably not. It’s going to take an entire region of a western nation being unmistakably destroyed by climate change before that happens. Unless a powerhouse like China or potentially India decides to force the world into meaningful climate action
There’s a actually a super interesting explanation (and time will tell how accurate that explanation is) regulations from 2020 limited how much sulfur dioxide ships could emit and it turns out the sulfur dioxide was actually creating a slight cooling effect, so now we’re experiencing the full brunt of our existing emissions as the world climate rubber bands to where it would have been if ships weren’t spewing toxic sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. So presumably this recent trend will stabilize at some point and we’ll have our new normal
This is also why geoengineering is so extremely risky. If you ever stop for any reason the climate will rubberband to where it should have been rapidly
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3
But doesn’t this mean that geoengineering is also effective at giving us extra time? We’d start using safer gases that have the same cooling effect while we try and go carbon negative worldwide
Geo-engineering is a rabbit hole we do not want to dive into. We have the ability and knowledge to fight climate change right now, the only thing we don’t have is the political willpower. Geo-engineering is a distraction, please don’t give it the time of day.
I have zero faith in governments nor societal leaders actually maintaining any geoengineering efforts consistently which is what would be required. Any time geoengineering buys would be squandered by inaction. I do not expect any significant action to occur until it immediately threatens businesses and governments in ways that cannot be ignored by even the most head-in-the-sand deniers
If we geoengineer, it will be half-assed, and the moment the scope shrinks (as funding naturally grows and shrinks depending on who’s setting budgets for administrations) every bit of climate change effect that we held off will come crashing down far more rapidly than the slow crawl we’ve been experiencing for the past century or so
If I, as a rando on the internet we’re to guess, the most cost effective tactic would be very large pumps firing ocean water into the air either to evaporate naturally or artificially evaporated to create more clouds. Clouds reflect sunlight and artificially creating more would slow ocean warning, and therefore slow global climate change. I’m certain the salt and other crap in the water would have difficult to predict downstream effects, at best creating more rain, at worst salting the rainforests
I don’t think the issue is whether it’s effective in isolation (clearly we can alter the environment), it’s the fact that it’s likely to be used as a shitty band aid to continue emitting carbon and it’s likely to have unforseen consequences. We need to stop burning fossil fuels, all of them, immediately.
Personally, I think that’d actually have an overall negative effect. Governments and corporations desperately don’t want to do anything about climate change, and giving them more time with cooler temperatures will (my opinion) just allow the world to further delay doing anything about it, allowing them to bake in even worse temps if they ever had to stop geoengineering for whatever reason.
This is a really morbid take, but all these big heatwaves, radical weather, and rise in weather related deaths cannot be ignored, and that’s unfortunately damn useful. It makes it harder to be a climate denier/skeptic, makes people more angry when nothing is being done about curbing emissions (hopefully leading to more climate protests), and really forces society to place a skeptical eye at all the new fossil fuels being brought online around the world, all because they can personally feel it.
If it could be made to be business as usual, I think we’d see the “Gosh darn it guys, we reaaaallly should do something about all this. Eventually.” mentality just continue until it once again becomes too hot physically to ignore.
This is a pretty terrifying explanation.
It’s less terrifying than the initial graph since it at least suggests this is a temporary period of rapid ocean warning while the climate rapidly reaches where it should have been. I’m (overly-)hopeful that the brief period of rapid climate change will finally spur more meaningful action by governments, but probably not. It’s going to take an entire region of a western nation being unmistakably destroyed by climate change before that happens. Unless a powerhouse like China or potentially India decides to force the world into meaningful climate action