The scary thing about elections is that, by design, nobody can ever “prove” they won.
Votes are designed to be anonymous. They have to be. If they’re not, they’re very vulnerable to manipulation. If someone can prove how they voted, then they can either be bribed to vote a certain way, or threatened to vote a certain way. If you can check that your vote was counted successfully for the candidate you chose, then someone else can check that you voted for the candidate they chose.
That means that, by design, the only security that elections can have is in the process. In a small election, like 1000ish votes or fewer, someone could supervise the whole thing. They could cast their vote, then stand there and watch. They could watch as other people voted, making sure that nobody voted twice, or dropped more than one sheet into the box. They could watch as the box was emptied. Then, they could watch as each vote was tallied. Barring some sleight-of-hand, in a small election like that, you could theoretically supervise the entire process, and convince yourself that the vote was fair.
But, that is impossible to scale. Even for 1000 votes, not every voter could supervise the entire process, and for more than 1000 votes, or votes involving more than one voting location, it’s just not possible for one person to watch the entire thing. So, at some point you need to trust other people. If you’re talking say 10,000 votes, maybe you have 10 people you trust beyond a shadow of a doubt, and each one of you could supervise one process. But, the bigger the election, the more impossible it is to have actual people you know and trust supervising everything.
In a huge country-wide election, there’s simply no alternative to trust. You have to trust poll workers you’ve never met, and/or election monitors you’ve never met. And, since you’re not likely to hear directly from poll workers or election monitors, you have to instead trust the news source you’re using that reports on the election. In a big, complex election, a statistician may be able to spot fraud based on all the information available. But, if you’re not that statistician, you have to trust them, and even if you are that statistician, you have to trust that your model is correct and that the data you’re feeding it is correct.
Society is built on trust, and voting is no different. Unfortunately, in the US, trust is breaking down, and without trust, it’s just a matter of which narrative seems the most “truthy” to you.
You know how people outside the USA vote? They go their, show their ID, get a tick on the list of voters, and do the voting.
This makes me think we are on the same path as many countries who routinely have significant civil conflict every election cycle.
Not a great look for a country. Not a great group to join. Yet here we are.
Same as happened in 2000, we’ll get 8 years of the guy who lost.
And then Jared Kushner touring with Democrats in 2040.
We already had four years so technically we would only get another four.
Until SCOTUS says the constitution isn’t constitutional and gives him a literal crown.
That’s the scary part. They’ll gladly approve his term limit extension.
That’s how Putin did it; probably the guy guiding all of this.
They have term limits over there in Russia as well, but they have interpreted it as “only allowed X years in a row”…so Putin installs a crony for 1 session every X years, and then magically wins the votes by a landslide every other time.
That’s what they’ll end up doing. They’ll ‘interpret’ it as consecutive terms, and we’ll get 8 years of Trump, then 4 of Vance, then 8 of Trump, etc.
Your scenario implies Trump lives to 98, and unless the preservatives in big macs are the key to longevity, I doubt he makes it that long.
Yeah, I keep actually forgetting how fucking OLD that guy is…yeesh.
Russian Constitution literally had this phrase “A same person cannot be a President for more than two terms in a row”, so it was already opened for an interpretation they did. This actually had changed for just “two terms” in 2020, but provided another excuse for Putin to be elected.
Anyhow, in US Constitution the 22nd amendment says that “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice”, so there is no room for interpretation. Even conservative SCOTUS would not do that.
They’d write off Trump by then anyway. They’d hand the reigns to Vance, and go FULL project 2025 while keeping the Magats allegiance to Vance, while extending HIS term limits.
Not that my scenario is any better.
Run for VP with crony as pres. crony resigns. Wasn’t elected as President. Loophole!
He’s been saying that if he wins, nobody will ever need to vote again.
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I’ve been saying this exact same thing. Trump is a raging moron and I fear the intelligent demagogue that follows him more than I fear a second trump presidency (although a second trump term might guarantee the former)
It’s not much consolation, but I do take a little solace in the fact that nearly all of the Trump-wannabes have crashed and burned on the ballot. So far, it seems like only Trump can pull of Trimpism. His ego won’t let him name a successor, so when he goes, there will be a MAGA void to fill and it might be difficult for a single person to fill it.
Will Trump’s natural death free us from right wing extremism? Absolutely not. But will one savvy politician gather all the support trump has? Not immediately, that’s for sure. When he’s gone, I bet 40% of his base will believe he’s still alive and the deep state is hiding him somewhere while Desantis-Cruz-Vance, etc are false prophets. I mean, Vance was supposed to be the savvy MAGA guy, and look how well liked he is.
Yeah, the whole “Cult of Personality” thing is solidly in Trumps hands - because look at him: The guy never backs down off of a lie. He can’t. He won’t. No other republican has had the bravado to be that stupidly bold.
IF by some absolutely obscene miracle we manage to avoid him this election term - then I suspect he’ll be gone for good. Nobody is going to put a 2-term loser up for president for a 3rd time. ---- Though I’ve been wrong in the past.
He doesn’t need to name a successor. His followers just need to be convinced that he named one.
I’d bet any amount of money that within the next few elections a republican will fly a flag with an obscure white supremacist rune on it
I’m hoping it’s a painful death, it’s already slow as fuck. he’s such an ugly person, deep inside.
Don’t threaten me with a good time!
I believe the goal and intent is to get enough results into question that they kick it into Mike Johnson’s hands - and that mfer has almost no history at all. No bank account, nothing. He’ll do the thing, it’ll be contested, it’ll go to supreme court, where – surprise surprise, they’ll rule in favor of Donald J Trump and he will be elected our new Dictator. At which point he’ll be sworn in, because - Dems have never had any backbone - and then he’ll proceed to gut every institution which questions him, and turn this nation into an autocracy.
What people don’t realize yet, is that the election doesn’t matter unless Kamala wins by such a large margin that they can’t pull this off. They require the veil of uncertainty for this all to work. But since we’re on razor-thin margins, it’s going to happen anyways.
We’re already boned, and nobody realizes it yet. The playbook is out in the open and the media has stopped calling this out. They’re complicit in it, because they think the leopards won’t eat their face too. So they’re cozying up early.
So you just riding the wave, heading for the hills? Sounds like you are convinced this will happen, not arguing that it won’t. If this is your reality right now, curious what that means, if anything, for your day to day life at the moment? Extra locks on door? Stockpiling ammo? Or do you think it will be more of a slow professional “business” fascism as we all continue to boil in the pot?
Genuinely curious what the folks who are 100% convinced today that we’re beyond fucked and society is crumbling in two weeks either way, are doing at this moment (when they can still “prepare” mentally, financially, etc.)
I know enough history to see where this is headed. I hope it won’t be an immediate firestorm, and I feel as if there are a lot of people in a lot of high up places that won’t just let Cheeto-man arbitrarily take control like he wants. So it won’t be an overnight thing. I already stockpile ammo, Republicans don’t have a monopoly on gun rights, thankfully. If I gotta skedaddle, I have both a place in Canada I can stay, and a place over in the UK temporarily. I’m, unfortunately surrounded by these imbiciles - but I keep my head down enough that most of them think I’m one too. Family already has their passports sorted.
Germany wasn’t an overnight thing either. It’ll start with rounding up political rivals and immigrants into camps. If that comes to pass, that’s my litmus test for getting the fuck out of dodge.
Envy your measured preparation. Hope it won’t be needed.
Bonus: I believe they’ll be doing something wild with Vance as well - probably temporarily making him president, while he pardons Trump for any past crimes, and then giving the presidency back to Trump.
Hmm, we learned in 2022 that the House can’t do anything until a Speaker is installed. And the new Congress is seated a few days before the EC votes are counted. What if Kamala wins the election, but the House declines to elect a Speaker? Can they even convene to count the votes? I hope so, since the VP president over the counting of votes, not the Speaker.
Still, a Kamala win will be a lot more bullet-proof it it comes with a Democratic House and Senate, too. Then there is far less that Mike can do to fuck it up.
There is still something the American People can do in such an undemocratic maneuver. Its the single action that we’ve built all of this bureaucracy to avoid. But the SC should never decide the president in a Democracy and neither should the Speaker. It should be counted until the counting is done, thats it. I will be razing hell the moment they try to remove our own agency and place it into the hands of their cronies. I’ve got a megaphone ready and all the PTO in the world.
Edit: raising, not raze. I’d rather not make it worse.
But the SC should never decide the president in a Democracy
That already happened in Bush v. Gore
Yeah and look at the bullshit we’re still dealing with from that era.
I believe you meant “raising hell” as in bringing it too the surface of Earth and recruiting Satan’s legions to fight with you, not razing hell as in cutting it down, because how would that help?
Idk whatever my phone had me say but your interpretation is correct
Only point of dispute is if she wins by a large margin they’ll just say the only way someone can win by such a large gap is through fraud.
If we’re saying “Trump won” what do we mean? The election is certified and he gets to be sworn in? If that’s the case then there is absolutely nothing that can be done. We’ll have PBS and 60 minutes stories about what happened and we’ll just have to suffer the reality that they got what they wanted.
If he claims to have won on Tuesday, but the results aren’t in completely then there is room to argue. It would just be bluster, it wouldn’t be officially recognized as a victory. When he does that it will be to ensure he can cry foul if the final results don’t go his way. He 100000000% will be doing this.
I have just watched the Legal Eagle video about the various law-related things that happened around the 2020 election.
It served as a reminder that the plan had apparently been to claim to have won before all the votes were counted - something about doing so in the interim between two sets of votes being counted (I want to say mail-in versus in-person, but I might have misunderstood) and then act as if Trump had actually won at that point, thus giving legitimacy to any later cry of foul that was almost sure to be needed.
Which is precisely what Trump did.
… my point being that it would be foolish to assume it wasn’t in the play book for this time around as well.
What I’m interested in seeing is if fox news will be willing to cast off any remaining semblance of fairness in favor of calling the election for him as well.
It will exactly be a repeat, for sure. It’ll be like the new inaugural routine, where a portion of the population will rise up for their murderous conman and try to overthrow a government. So long as he’s alive.
It’s still funnily ironic how this is the party, the GOP, that told Democrats in 2016 to just “accept it”. But when it was their turn to, no, they start an insurrection.
I mean, Biden has the power to do whatever he wants now and could potentially overturn the results in the interests of national security or whatever. He won’t, but it’s nice to think that he could do something to avert a fascist takeover. Democrats will take the high-road into letting democracy die.
The premise here is that Trump loses but refuses to back down, attempting to forcibly claim victory. If Trump legitimately wins, there is a different path. Then…
Assuming multiple systematic failures occur simultaneously, including any of: actual voter fraud, fraudulent electors, congress refusing to certify, a captured supreme court acting in favour of Trump, or actual insurrection on or before Jan 6th.
I actually expect the US Military to step in. Every member is sworn to uphold the constitution. But if the constitution has been discarded, then I’d expect them to step in to restore it.
Failing that, the US likely fractures and we leave the Republic phase.
I actually expect the US Military to step in. Every member is sworn to uphold the constitution. But if the constitution has been discarded, then I’d expect them to step in to restore it.
Have you met the Oathkeepers?
If shit goes down, assume anyone with a uniform is going to throw in with the authoritarian despot.
You are very confused regarding the rank and file vs. officers.
See I wouldn’t be to sure. There’s plenty of left leaning people who would fight to help restore the US. In the armed forces and by in large they have higher positions. Not necessarily higher as in commander positions but just non grunt ones. At least from what I hear from the friends and family I have in the various branches of the armed forces.
Enlisted lean solidly conservative while officers are more to the center.
If somehow there is fraud, then it won’t be like Jan 6.
If Trump wins through fraud Liberals will find a way to blame third party voters and continue to blame them for the next four years, other then that they might complain.
How would he win it through fraud? If he wins, he’ll win legitimately.
Claiming that it’s fraud if he wins is exactly what Trump did in 2020.
Hey stop thinking for yourself this is not allowed. Thinking for yourself is anti democratic and by using critical thinking you are supporting trump who is literally hitler.
Through fraud? Are u saying if he wins it will be through fraud?
Yes. Yes we are. On account of the massive amount of fraud that’s been coming out of his corner for 8 years and counting.
That Trump is committing voter fraud is a given guarantee, whether it lets him win or not is what’s up in question.
Thats one hell of an accusation. U got any proof cos i see people making this claim but i never see anyone with any actual evidance of it.
Well, I’m glad you asked.
https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/fact-check-trumps-georgia-call-raffensperger
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/us/politics/trump-raffensperger-call-georgia.html#
https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-trump-indictment-fulton-suitcases-pipe-654281257169
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/09/us/georgia-presidential-election-results.html (note that this is another, different, illegal call to the Georgia reps from the one listed above)
These were the quick easy ones I found on the first page of search, there are more.
These are trump claiming voter fraud has occurred. And stuff related to 2020. This isnt vote fraud this is claiming the other side has committed fraud and him questioning results of the elections that he believes where fraudulent. This is not him using illegal methods to change votes in the current election. Russia does vote fraud by threatening violence ballot stuffing and pre marking ballots this is what voter fraud looks like i see zero evidance of this currently happening.
Did you miss the two separate articles in which he’s on tape calling the representatives of Georgia and threatening them to “find” more votes?
In 2020? After the election had taken place while contesting the ruling?
If there is another jan 6th it will be a tragedy.
There will be many more casualties.
The incumbent office won’t hesitate to act like Trump did, tactfully. It will be a massacre.
That’s all I know.
