A new poll in New Hampshire shows Vice President Kamala Harris is six points ahead of former President Donald Trump in the battleground state.
The survey of more than 2,000 registered New Hampshire voters by Saint Anselm College took place on July 24-25, after Harris secured enough delegate support to become the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
Harris leads Trump 50% to 44% in the poll. A poll taken by Saint Anselm in June after President Biden struggled in the debate showed Trump edging out Biden in New Hampshire by two points.
Great. Glad to hear it. But don’t get complacent. Remind yourself that polls can change fast, and polling itself is a troubled science right now because of the difficulties involved in getting a statistically significant and unbiased sample with the advent of universal cellphones.
I came in here for exactly this.
DON’T GET COMPLACENT
Here is how to volunteer for text banking, apparently. I plan to get off Lemmy and do some later today.
The fuckin world could still end in January. Don’t get all complacent.
Yep, and you don’t have to limit yourself to just text banking too. There’s post card writing, canvassing, phone banks, vote registration drives, etc.
Here’s another site people can use to find a bunch of local volunteer opportunities around them
Thank you for sharing that link! More people need to see it.
Another thing we need to work on is making sure people are still registered. Some select groups of people are being removed from registration lists.
I hope that orange fuck just gets crushed when election day rolls around. Then we’ll never have to hear from him again.
There is no scenario besides death where that last sentence is true. Even then you’re going to be hearing the same shit from his supporters for a long time.
I think you’re correct, but if he becomes completely nonviable, the party will phase him out. He’s a useful-ish idiot right now. That might not be true for long, and then maybe his legal safety nets will stop protecting him once they see he can’t do anything for them.
Look at the trend from across the world. The far-right is not crushed-- only kept at bay. Marine Le Pen and her party in France have been going at it for 7 years now. Without the tactical voting in previous elections, her party would have won. AfD surpassed the centre left SDP party as the second most popular party and it may only be a matter of time for another far right party to rule Germany again. And the far-right, as we speak, is in charge in Italy along with Mussolini’s granddaughter. In Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ party is finally in power despite initially losing 7 years ago.
The liberal media’s celebration of any news of far right not winning in any country is false sense of security and deliberate attempt to misdirect the real root cause. If the underlying economic and social issues are not addressed, and the rich are being allowed to get even richer while the poor ever poorer, the far right will only inch closer and closer to attaining power again.
Yup, this is just a replay of early 20th century. Inequality exploded and eventually you had revolutions virtually everywhere (in europe and the west, ar least).
Some were extreme-left (communism)
Some were extreme-right (facism)
Some were far-left for the time (social-democratic, or “new deal” as it’s known in the US)
Some were violent, some were relatively peaceful.
But they were basically all inevitable, the people were frustrated and willing to support whatever platform promised something ‘different’.
We’re at that point currently, but only the far-right is offering anything different, so even though it’s a terrible option, people will gravitate towards it. The solution is to offer genuine vision of change from the left.
If the underlying economic and social issues are not addressed, and the rich are being allowed to get even richer while the poor ever poorer, the far right will only inch closer and closer to attaining power again.
Why? I don’t get this. I understand people are upset with the status quo but there is no version of the far right that has not played the same game when in power. They offer no solution to the problem you state
They complain and they offer a bogeyman. That’s enough for most people since it comforts them.
Precisely. The lack of jobs and housing are blamed on immigrants, even though decades long austerity and neoliberalism led us to where we are now.
he’ll whine but I’m pretty sure if he loses he’ll spend the rest of his time on house arrest at his resort
god that would be so awesome to see him decimated by a woman of color… the electoral college is a huge issue but there’s finally some energy on the Dem side… we’ll see.
I hope he gets so profoundly smacked around at the ballot box that the GOP finally fractures. Best case scenario, it’ll be into three separate parties that all blame each other for the loss and each hate the others more than they hate the Democrats. They’ll be so disarrayed and disunited they’ll never hold office in any meaningful numbers ever again.
And why not? The Whig party also crashed and burned. They too were an unlikely coalition of convenience that, after being a major player in American politics for two decades and getting Tyler & Fillmore into office in 1848, lost the 1852 election with only 42/296 electoral votes.
By 1854, the Whig party was a shadow of its former self, most of its members having left for the “American Party,” which also shook itself apart without ever putting a president into office or holding more than 20% of Congress.
Then in 1856 Millard Fillmore ran for re-election on a Whig ticket, after being out of the White House for several years, and only pulled 8/296 electoral votes, putting the last nail into the party’s coffin.
May history repeat itself.
Do polls make anyone else unreasonably angry?
Unless it’s 20 points, I can’t fathom how that many people support Trump. He never says anything of value in any speech. There’s no platform to support. He just needs power to avoid criminal consequences, and half the country is good with that.
Who answers these polls?
What percentage of the population?
What age groups?
What states?
Are these people who have answered polls in the past are on a list to call for other polls?
You only have to look back to the 2020 election or the support for Trump-loving Republicans in 2022 to recognize that there are still a ton of people who support that dumbass crook.
I wonder how many would actually support him if they weren’t watching Fox News.
That is absolutely a huge part of the problem. As it was intended to be.
Who, here, has been “polled” in the past 10 years?
I have. But a big part of that is that I respond to polls. I use to work for a survey call center and I know that kind of hell it is and how much completed surveys can improve their pay for the next month, so I tend to do them if they call me.
Sociology major. We call it researcher’s guilt.
I initially thought I had been. Like the other person commenting, I realize that completed surveys are good for the poor schmuck working in the call center. But a few questions in, the questions themselves became extremely biased. Like “were you aware that [Dem local candidate] voted in support of the LGBT agenda?” type shit. And then the “pollster” asked some questions that mentioned local towns in rural Minnesota - completely mispronounced. I asked where the caller was located. It turns out the local GOP candidate hired a call center in New York.
I don’t answer phone surveys anymore.
Yeah, those questions are the only the only way I stay sane. I’ve never been asked to participate in a poll so I have to assume the demographics are biased toward specific groups, like people who answer land line phones.
They are and is why polling has been broken
Yeah pretty much.
Something like 30% of your compatriots are mindless automatons. Only reason I’m not angry is because I’m desensitized to it. I have written down that fraction of America, those retrograde degenerates, since the early 2000s.
How big is MAGA really? It cannot be half the country.
This one is especially dumb. And I think tells the story people keep repeating about not trusting any of these polls. Because the news wants a horse race.
In aggregated data, as of April 2020, Biden was 2% ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Then 8% ahead by August. Then 11% ahead in October. Ended up beating Trump by 8% in the actual New Hampshire vote.
This year Biden was 2% ahead in May. Harris is supposedly 8% ahead now. That will continue to diverge and I’d bet land around 11% ahead again by October.
This is the news slow walking that Trump is still more popular than he really is to keep things interesting.
I got both my brother-in law and sister-in-law to sign up for automatic voter registration and mail-in-ballots! If you know people who lean left but are kind of apathetic voters, it pays to pester them (kindly)!
If everyone did this, we could massively amplify voter turnout.
It’s also worth having those conversations with family and friends who lean right. You’re the only ones who could possibly get through to them. Slow and steady is key.
Slow and steady is key.
Yeah. I tried “If you vote for Trump, you’re a racist.” That didn’t go well.
What worked better was 4 granddaughters and a gay grandson. Sometimes you just have to play the long game.
Yep, exactly! Also perhaps offering a trade, “Hey I’ll watch one thing of yours if you promise to watch one thing I send to you.” Then show them the documentary of, say, “The Brainwashing of my Dad.”
This is what happens when Democrats listen.
2% April, 8% July, 11% October is how much Biden was supposedly ahead in 2020. Then won by a bit under 8%.
Polls for New Hampshire in 2024 have been following a similar pattern. Harris being ahead 6% is slightly below Biden at this same time last election. Which isn’t much to get hyped about.
Compare that to Biden’s numbers a week ago.
-
Polls are garbage.
-
The Horse Race demands more polls
-
Whatever the poll results are, see #1
I disagree that polls are garbage. If that were the case, Biden would still be running for president. With that being said, ignore the polls and make sure you vote.
I’m not saying polls aren’t useful. I’m saying they’re tortured fabrications of some paper-thin slice of reality that can be moulded into whatever narrative is desired.
Occasionally, they mirror the actual zeitgeist. But more often than not, they’re simply created to push a narrative.
Does this also apply to exit polls?
Exit polls are marginally more useful. As always, and the thing polls do not account for: It Depends.
I lie at exit polls.
I’m not alone.You dang kids and your rock and roll music!
Dad?
-
Don’t care. Just vote.
Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.
Go on…
Maybe his nepotistic kids with their stupid fucking faces could join him there.
Fucker should already be in jail. I cross my fingers everyday that he drops dead from something.
Yo. If she is elected, maybe he goes to prison.
SCOTUS just whiplashed
Keep in mind NH is only vaguely a battleground at the federal level, Biden won it by 7+ points in 2020 and they haven’t voted for a Republican president since 2000 and even then Bush barely eked out a win. Push against the fascists still!
But what it does show is a major momentum shift. Going from Trump +2 after the debate (polling Biden vs Trump) to Harris +6 in the same state from the same polling organization is nothing to scoff at
Though as other people have said, polls don’t determine elections, we do. Elections are only won when people get involved and when people vote
Harris is showing within the margin of error for polls nationally
What we really want to do is look at her chances of winning each state to see the probable delegate total but it’s WAY too early to tell and either way we shouldn’t get complacent
Each swing state specifically
I hear you, but Hillary took it by less than 1% in 2016.
Trump edging out Biden
Oh ffs the imagery. Phrasing, please.
Don’t worry! I’ll help you out here
Trump edging
outBidenThere you go. I edited it for you.
TIHI
I like that USA is now talking about their own person instead of giving the orange one all the attention
Go vote!
New Hampshire Smash
Supporting Trump is so 2016, get with the times…
Remember a week ago when there was “not enough time” to replace Biden? Clearly that was bullshit but no one wants to talk about it.
Who cares?
The lack of cognitive dissonance is astounding. This is the same group think that you lambast Republicans for. Maybe we should be better than that? Maybe?
I’ll stop bringing up how wrong they were. But it will take as long as it took centrists to stop blaming Sanders supporters for the loss Clinton earned.
That’s still accurate now. It would be a 1968 situation all over again if not for everyone agreeing to rally around Harris. Had multiple people stepped forward we’d all be arguing over that at least into September.
Given the recent developments, it turns out its a risk worth taking. Even better had Biden dropped out sooner.
